Ocugen, Inc.

OCGN

HealthcareBiotechnologyNASDAQ

$1.51

Market Cap: $511.16M

Ocugen, Inc. (OCGN) Valuation Summary

Updated May 10, 2026 21:54

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$19.55 – $59.94	$32.57	+2056.8%
Revenue DCF 10Y	—	N/A	—
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$0.06 – $0.26	$0.16	-89.4%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Ocugen, Inc. (OCGN) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$32.57

Market Price

$1.51

Upside / Downside

+2056.8%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -1425.7% to a target of 13.2% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 8.9%, Ocugen, Inc. (OCGN) has an intrinsic value of $32.57 per share (range: $19.55 – $59.94).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-1425.7%

Target Operating Margin

13.2%

WACC

8.9%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

110.1%

Target CapEx/Rev

50.1%

D&A/Revenue

33.4%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	4	-20.5%	-1137.9%	-40	-40	1	(3)	1	-43	-41
2027	10	191.2%	-850.1%	-87	-87	3	(9)	-10	-82	-72
2028	206	1913.2%	-562.4%	-1,157	-1,157	69	(152)	-304	-937	-757
2029	591	187.2%	-274.6%	-1,622	-1,622	197	(367)	-599	-1,193	-886
2030	1,231	108.3%	13.2%	162	128	411	(617)	-994	917	625

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-1,131

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)16,025

PV of Terminal Value10,921

Enterprise Value9,790

(–) Net Debt15

Equity Value9,776

(÷) Shares Outstanding300

Fair Value per Share$32.57

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%	19.2%
6.9%	$52	$54	$56	$58	$60
7.9%	$39	$40	$42	$43	$45
8.9%	$30	$31	$33	$34	$35
9.9%	$24	$25	$26	$27	$28
10.9%	$20	$20	$21	$22	$23

Current price: $1.51. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at -155.4% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$0.16

Market Price

$1.51

Upside / Downside

-89.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Ocugen, Inc. (OCGN) has a fair value of $0.16 based on 5 comparable companies in the Biotechnology industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Biotechnology

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Ocugen, Inc.OCGN	453	106.0x	133.3x
Alumis Inc. Common StockALMS	2,913	118.9x	—
Lexicon Pharmaceuticals, Inc.LXRX	847	17.6x	25.8x
ADC Therapeutics S.A.ADCT	445	7.7x	7.7x
Fulcrum Therapeutics, Inc.FULC	379	4.1x	—
Lineage Cell Therapeutics, Inc.LCTX	341	20.8x	13.6x
Industry Median		17.6x	13.6x
(*) Revenue		4	4
= Enterprise Value		78	48
(-) Net Debt		15	15
Equity Value		63	33
(/) Outstanding shares		300	300
Fair Price		$0	$0

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$0.16

-89.4%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$19.55 – $59.94

$32.57

+2056.8%

Revenue DCF 10Y

—

N/A

—

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$0.06 – $0.26

$0.16

-89.4%

DCF Analysis

Ocugen, Inc. (OCGN) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$32.57

Market Price

$1.51

Upside / Downside

+2056.8%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-1425.7%

Target Operating Margin

13.2%

WACC

8.9%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

110.1%

Target CapEx/Rev

50.1%

D&A/Revenue

33.4%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	4	-20.5%	-1137.9%	-40	-40	1	(3)	1	-43	-41
2027	10	191.2%	-850.1%	-87	-87	3	(9)	-10	-82	-72
2028	206	1913.2%	-562.4%	-1,157	-1,157	69	(152)	-304	-937	-757
2029	591	187.2%	-274.6%	-1,622	-1,622	197	(367)	-599	-1,193	-886
2030	1,231	108.3%	13.2%	162	128	411	(617)	-994	917	625

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-1,131

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)16,025

PV of Terminal Value10,921

Enterprise Value9,790

(–) Net Debt15

Equity Value9,776

(÷) Shares Outstanding300

Fair Value per Share$32.57

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%	19.2%
6.9%	$52	$54	$56	$58	$60
7.9%	$39	$40	$42	$43	$45
8.9%	$30	$31	$33	$34	$35
9.9%	$24	$25	$26	$27	$28
10.9%	$20	$20	$21	$22	$23

Current price: $1.51. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$0.16

Market Price

$1.51

Upside / Downside

-89.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Ocugen, Inc. (OCGN) has a fair value of $0.16 based on 5 comparable companies in the Biotechnology industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Biotechnology

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Ocugen, Inc.OCGN	453	106.0x	133.3x
Alumis Inc. Common StockALMS	2,913	118.9x	—
Lexicon Pharmaceuticals, Inc.LXRX	847	17.6x	25.8x
ADC Therapeutics S.A.ADCT	445	7.7x	7.7x
Fulcrum Therapeutics, Inc.FULC	379	4.1x	—
Lineage Cell Therapeutics, Inc.LCTX	341	20.8x	13.6x
Industry Median		17.6x	13.6x
(*) Revenue		4	4
= Enterprise Value		78	48
(-) Net Debt		15	15
Equity Value		63	33
(/) Outstanding shares		300	300
Fair Price		$0	$0

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$0.16

-89.4%