Fulcrum Therapeutics, Inc.

FULC

HealthcareBiotechnologyNASDAQ

$6.96

Market Cap: $376.62M

Fulcrum Therapeutics, Inc. (FULC) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 28, 2026 22:23

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$0.32 – $5.32	$1.75	-76.5%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$1.02 – $4.47	$2.15	-71.1%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$19.75 – $164.25	$13.34	+79.3%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fulcrum Therapeutics, Inc. (FULC) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$2.15

Market Price

$6.96

Upside / Downside

-69.1%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -27.4% to a target of 13.3% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 8.4%, Fulcrum Therapeutics, Inc. (FULC) has an intrinsic value of $2.15 per share (range: $1.02 – $4.47).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-27.4%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

8.4%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

14.6%

Target CapEx/Rev

49.0%

D&A/Revenue

32.6%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2025	104	30.0%	-19.2%	-20	-20	34	(19)	-18	13	13
2026	0	-99.7%	-11.1%	-0	-0	0	(0)	16	-16	-14
2027	361	115722.9%	-3.0%	-11	-11	118	(90)	-56	73	60
2028	56	-84.6%	5.2%	3	2	18	(16)	47	-42	-32
2029	143	156.9%	13.3%	19	15	47	(45)	-13	30	21
2030	234	63.9%	13.3%	31	25	76	(82)	-14	33	21
2031	304	30.0%	13.3%	41	32	99	(118)	-11	25	15
2032	396	30.0%	13.3%	53	42	129	(167)	-14	18	10
2033	484	22.3%	13.3%	65	51	158	(220)	-14	2	1
2034	546	12.7%	13.3%	73	57	178	(267)	-9	-22	-10

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)84

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)0

PV of Terminal Value0

Enterprise Value84

(–) Net Debt-50

Equity Value133

(÷) Shares Outstanding62

Fair Value per Share$2.15

Note:Terminal value is $0 because Year 5 FCFF is negative. The company's operating margin convergence does not fully offset reinvestment needs within 5 years. See the sensitivity matrix for scenarios where the model produces a positive terminal value (higher target margin or lower WACC).

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
6.4%	$1	$2	$2	$3	$4
7.4%	$1	$2	$2	$3	$4
8.4%	$1	$2	$2	$3	$4
9.4%	$1	$2	$2	$3	$4
10.4%	$1	$2	$2	$3	$3

Current price: $6.96. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at -15.4% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Fulcrum Therapeutics, Inc. (FULC) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$1.75

Market Price

$6.96

Upside / Downside

-74.9%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-27.4%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

8.4%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

14.6%

Target CapEx/Rev

49.0%

D&A/Revenue

32.6%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2025	104	30.0%	-19.2%	-20	-20	34	(22)	-18	10	9
2026	0	-99.7%	-11.1%	-0	-0	0	(0)	16	-16	-14
2027	361	115722.9%	-3.0%	-11	-11	118	(127)	-56	36	29
2028	56	-84.6%	5.2%	3	2	18	(23)	47	-50	-38
2029	143	156.9%	13.3%	19	15	47	(70)	-13	5	4

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-10

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)99

PV of Terminal Value69

Enterprise Value59

(–) Net Debt-50

Equity Value108

(÷) Shares Outstanding62

Fair Value per Share$1.75

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
6.4%	$0	$1	$3	$4	$5
7.4%	$0	$1	$2	$3	$4
8.4%	$0	$1	$2	$3	$3
9.4%	$0	$1	$2	$2	$3
10.4%	$0	$1	$1	$2	$3

Current price: $6.96. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$13.34

Market Price

$6.96

Upside / Downside

+91.7%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Fulcrum Therapeutics, Inc. (FULC) has a fair value of $13.34 based on 4 comparable companies in the Biotechnology industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Biotechnology

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Fulcrum Therapeutics, Inc.FULC	431	4.8x	1224.2x
Lexicon Pharmaceuticals, Inc.LXRX	703	14.7x	21.6x
Ocugen, Inc.OCGN	544	126.6x	—
ADC Therapeutics S.A.ADCT	480	8.1x	8.2x
Lineage Cell Therapeutics, Inc.LCTX	389	24.1x	11.7x
Industry Median		19.4x	11.7x
(*) Revenue		80	0
= Enterprise Value		1,550	5
(-) Net Debt		-50	-50
Equity Value		1,599	55
(/) Outstanding shares		62	62
Fair Price		$26	$1

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$13.34

+91.7%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$0.32 – $5.32

$1.75

-76.5%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$1.02 – $4.47

$2.15

-71.1%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$19.75 – $164.25

$13.34

+79.3%

DCF Analysis

Fulcrum Therapeutics, Inc. (FULC) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$2.15

Market Price

$6.96

Upside / Downside

-69.1%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-27.4%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

8.4%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

14.6%

Target CapEx/Rev

49.0%

D&A/Revenue

32.6%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2025	104	30.0%	-19.2%	-20	-20	34	(19)	-18	13	13
2026	0	-99.7%	-11.1%	-0	-0	0	(0)	16	-16	-14
2027	361	115722.9%	-3.0%	-11	-11	118	(90)	-56	73	60
2028	56	-84.6%	5.2%	3	2	18	(16)	47	-42	-32
2029	143	156.9%	13.3%	19	15	47	(45)	-13	30	21
2030	234	63.9%	13.3%	31	25	76	(82)	-14	33	21
2031	304	30.0%	13.3%	41	32	99	(118)	-11	25	15
2032	396	30.0%	13.3%	53	42	129	(167)	-14	18	10
2033	484	22.3%	13.3%	65	51	158	(220)	-14	2	1
2034	546	12.7%	13.3%	73	57	178	(267)	-9	-22	-10

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)84

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)0

PV of Terminal Value0

Enterprise Value84

(–) Net Debt-50

Equity Value133

(÷) Shares Outstanding62

Fair Value per Share$2.15

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
6.4%	$1	$2	$2	$3	$4
7.4%	$1	$2	$2	$3	$4
8.4%	$1	$2	$2	$3	$4
9.4%	$1	$2	$2	$3	$4
10.4%	$1	$2	$2	$3	$3

Current price: $6.96. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$13.34

Market Price

$6.96

Upside / Downside

+91.7%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Fulcrum Therapeutics, Inc. (FULC) has a fair value of $13.34 based on 4 comparable companies in the Biotechnology industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Biotechnology

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Fulcrum Therapeutics, Inc.FULC	431	4.8x	1224.2x
Lexicon Pharmaceuticals, Inc.LXRX	703	14.7x	21.6x
Ocugen, Inc.OCGN	544	126.6x	—
ADC Therapeutics S.A.ADCT	480	8.1x	8.2x
Lineage Cell Therapeutics, Inc.LCTX	389	24.1x	11.7x
Industry Median		19.4x	11.7x
(*) Revenue		80	0
= Enterprise Value		1,550	5
(-) Net Debt		-50	-50
Equity Value		1,599	55
(/) Outstanding shares		62	62
Fair Price		$26	$1

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$13.34

+91.7%