Alumis Inc. Common Stock

ALMS

HealthcareBiotechnologyNASDAQ

$23.66

Market Cap: $2.91B

Alumis Inc. Common Stock (ALMS) Valuation Summary

Updated May 11, 2026 02:22

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$0.10 – $2.98	$0.10	-99.6%
Revenue DCF 10Y	—	N/A	—
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$0.28 – $0.65	$0.32	-98.6%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Alumis Inc. Common Stock (ALMS) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.10

Market Price

$23.66

Upside / Downside

-99.6%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -1776.3% to a target of 13.2% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 8.5%, Alumis Inc. Common Stock (ALMS) has an intrinsic value of $0.10 per share (range: $0.10 – $2.98).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-1776.3%

Target Operating Margin

13.2%

WACC

8.5%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

2.7%

Target CapEx/Rev

21.8%

D&A/Revenue

14.5%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	8	-66.0%	-1418.4%	-116	-116	1	(1)	5	-121	-116
2027	30	267.9%	-1060.5%	-319	-319	4	(3)	-7	-310	-274
2028	169	462.9%	-702.6%	-1,189	-1,189	25	(24)	-46	-1,142	-930
2029	427	152.1%	-344.7%	-1,471	-1,471	62	(77)	-86	-1,399	-1,050
2030	876	105.3%	13.2%	116	91	127	(191)	-150	177	123

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-2,248

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)3,297

PV of Terminal Value2,280

Enterprise Value32

(–) Net Debt-53

Equity Value84

(÷) Shares Outstanding850

Fair Value per Share$0.10

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%	19.2%
6.5%	$1	$1	$2	$2	$3
7.5%	$-0	$0	$1	$1	$2
8.5%	$-1	$-0	$0	$0	$1
9.5%	$-1	$-1	$-0	$-0	$0
10.5%	$-1	$-1	$-1	$-0	$-0

Current price: $23.66. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at -33.4% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$0.32

Market Price

$23.66

Upside / Downside

-98.6%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Alumis Inc. Common Stock (ALMS) has a fair value of $0.32 based on 6 comparable companies in the Biotechnology industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Biotechnology

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Alumis Inc. Common StockALMS	20,118	834.3x	2455.7x
Lexicon Pharmaceuticals, Inc.LXRX	847	17.6x	25.8x
Eton Pharmaceuticals, Inc.ETON	809	9.9x	7.0x
Ocugen, Inc.OCGN	511	119.1x	149.8x
ADC Therapeutics S.A.ADCT	445	7.7x	7.7x
Fulcrum Therapeutics, Inc.FULC	379	4.1x	—
Lineage Cell Therapeutics, Inc.LCTX	341	20.8x	13.6x
Industry Median		13.7x	13.6x
(*) Revenue		24	8
= Enterprise Value		331	111
(-) Net Debt		-53	-53
Equity Value		383	164
(/) Outstanding shares		850	850
Fair Price		$0	$0

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$0.32

-98.6%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$0.10 – $2.98

$0.10

-99.6%

Revenue DCF 10Y

—

N/A

—

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$0.28 – $0.65

$0.32

-98.6%

DCF Analysis

Alumis Inc. Common Stock (ALMS) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.10

Market Price

$23.66

Upside / Downside

-99.6%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-1776.3%

Target Operating Margin

13.2%

WACC

8.5%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

2.7%

Target CapEx/Rev

21.8%

D&A/Revenue

14.5%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	8	-66.0%	-1418.4%	-116	-116	1	(1)	5	-121	-116
2027	30	267.9%	-1060.5%	-319	-319	4	(3)	-7	-310	-274
2028	169	462.9%	-702.6%	-1,189	-1,189	25	(24)	-46	-1,142	-930
2029	427	152.1%	-344.7%	-1,471	-1,471	62	(77)	-86	-1,399	-1,050
2030	876	105.3%	13.2%	116	91	127	(191)	-150	177	123

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-2,248

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)3,297

PV of Terminal Value2,280

Enterprise Value32

(–) Net Debt-53

Equity Value84

(÷) Shares Outstanding850

Fair Value per Share$0.10

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%	19.2%
6.5%	$1	$1	$2	$2	$3
7.5%	$-0	$0	$1	$1	$2
8.5%	$-1	$-0	$0	$0	$1
9.5%	$-1	$-1	$-0	$-0	$0
10.5%	$-1	$-1	$-1	$-0	$-0

Current price: $23.66. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$0.32

Market Price

$23.66

Upside / Downside

-98.6%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Alumis Inc. Common Stock (ALMS) has a fair value of $0.32 based on 6 comparable companies in the Biotechnology industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Biotechnology

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Alumis Inc. Common StockALMS	20,118	834.3x	2455.7x
Lexicon Pharmaceuticals, Inc.LXRX	847	17.6x	25.8x
Eton Pharmaceuticals, Inc.ETON	809	9.9x	7.0x
Ocugen, Inc.OCGN	511	119.1x	149.8x
ADC Therapeutics S.A.ADCT	445	7.7x	7.7x
Fulcrum Therapeutics, Inc.FULC	379	4.1x	—
Lineage Cell Therapeutics, Inc.LCTX	341	20.8x	13.6x
Industry Median		13.7x	13.6x
(*) Revenue		24	8
= Enterprise Value		331	111
(-) Net Debt		-53	-53
Equity Value		383	164
(/) Outstanding shares		850	850
Fair Price		$0	$0

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$0.32

-98.6%