Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Exxon Mobil Corporation's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 5.0% to 1.2% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 44, DPO 54, DIO 34). At a 7.3% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (76% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 10.5x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $181.46 per share, suggesting XOM is fairly valued by 9.8% at the current price of $165.33.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 68,245 | 68,967 | 69,056 | 57,745 | 58,428 | 59,889 |
| (−) Net Interest | 868 | 877 | 879 | 735 | 743 | 762 |
| (+) D&A | 21,013 | 22,879 | 23,523 | 23,470 | 22,231 | 22,787 |
| EBITDA | 90,126 | 92,722 | 93,457 | 81,950 | 81,403 | 83,438 |
| (−) Tax | 18,530 | 18,726 | 18,750 | 15,679 | 15,864 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 21,403 | 21,629 | 21,657 | 18,110 | 18,324 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 16,848 | 283 | 35 | -4,442 | 268 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 33,345 | 52,084 | 53,015 | 52,603 | 46,946 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 10.5x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 874,426 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.29% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 32,193 | 46,868 | 44,465 | 41,122 | 34,206 | 615,108 |
| Enterprise Value | 813,962 | |||||
| Projection Period | 198,853 | 24.4% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 615,108 | 75.6% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 32,856 | |||||
| Equity Value | 781,106 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 4305M | |||||
| Fair Price | $181 | +9.7% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 6.5x | 8.5x | 10.5x | 12.5x | 14.5x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.3% | $138 | $168 | $198 | $228 | $258 |
| 6.3% | $132 | $161 | $189 | $218 | $247 |
| 7.3% | $127 | $154 | $181 | $209 | $236 |
| 8.3% | $122 | $148 | $174 | $200 | $226 |
| 9.3% | $117 | $142 | $167 | $192 | $217 |
Current price: $165.33. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.