Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 14.9% plus 2.5% dividend yield, Exxon Mobil Corporation has a fair value of $119.28 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $8.02. The current PEG ratio is 1.39.
PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.
PEG works well for steady growers with predictable earnings.
| EPS Growth RateForward | 12.4% |
| Dividend Yield | +2.5% |
| Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%) | 14.9% |
| Fair P/E | 14.9x |
| NTM EPS (FY2026) | $8.02 |
| Fair Value | $119.28 |
| Period | EPS Est. | Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (actual) | $6.70 | — | — |
| FY2026E | $8.02 | +19.6% | 11 |
| FY2027E | $8.87 | +10.7% | 11 |
| FY2028E | $10.06 | +13.4% | 8 |
| FY2029E | $11.04 | +9.7% | 7 |
| FY2030E | $12.01 | +8.8% | 7 |
5Y Forward EPS CAGR: 12.4%
| Year | Net Income | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $23.0B | $5.39 | — |
| FY2022 | $55.7B | $13.26 | +146.0% |
| FY2023 | $36.0B | $8.89 | -33.0% |
| FY2024 | $33.7B | $7.84 | -11.8% |
| FY2025 | $28.8B | $6.70 | -14.5% |
4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 5.6%
The PEG Fair Value uses the Price/Earnings-to-Growth framework. A stock is fairly valued when its P/E ratio equals its earnings growth rate (PEG = 1.0). This model adds dividend yield to the growth rate per the original PEGY formula.
Growth rate priority: analyst consensus forward EPS CAGR (when ≥ 3 analysts cover the stock), falling back to historical EPS CAGR. Using EPS rather than net income avoids distortion from share buybacks. The growth rate is clamped between 8% and 25% — below 8% would undervalue stable earners, while above 25% would overvalue unsustainable spikes.