Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Vistra Corp.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 37.3% to 1.8% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 45, DPO 43, DIO 23). At a 6.7% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (85% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 12.8x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $166.85 per share, suggesting VST is fairly valued by 11.0% at the current price of $150.34.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 2,138 | 2,355 | 2,410 | 2,268 | 2,308 | 2,366 |
| (−) Net Interest | 1,243 | 1,370 | 1,401 | 1,319 | 1,342 | 1,376 |
| (+) D&A | 2,006 | 2,356 | 2,710 | 3,002 | 3,178 | 3,257 |
| EBITDA | 5,387 | 6,081 | 6,521 | 6,589 | 6,828 | 6,998 |
| (−) Tax | 429 | 473 | 484 | 455 | 463 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 2,785 | 3,068 | 3,140 | 2,954 | 3,007 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 187 | 192 | 48 | -125 | 36 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 1,985 | 2,348 | 2,849 | 3,305 | 3,322 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 12.8x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 89,229 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.66% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 1,922 | 2,132 | 2,425 | 2,637 | 2,486 | 64,651 |
| Enterprise Value | 76,254 | |||||
| Projection Period | 11,603 | 15.2% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 64,651 | 84.8% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 19,579 | |||||
| Equity Value | 56,675 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 340M | |||||
| Fair Price | $167 | +10.9% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 8.8x | 10.8x | 12.8x | 14.8x | 16.8x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.7% | $122 | $155 | $188 | $220 | $253 |
| 5.7% | $114 | $146 | $177 | $208 | $239 |
| 6.7% | $107 | $137 | $167 | $197 | $227 |
| 7.7% | $100 | $129 | $157 | $186 | $214 |
| 8.7% | $94 | $121 | $148 | $176 | $203 |
Current price: $150.34. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.