Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 25.0% plus 0.6% dividend yield, Vistra Corp. has a fair value of $214.93 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $8.60. The current PEG ratio is 0.34.
PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.
Growth above 25% is capped — hypergrowth may not be sustainable long-term.
| EPS Growth RateForward | 51.1% |
| Dividend Yield | +0.6% |
| Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped | 25.0% |
| Fair P/E | 25.0x |
| NTM EPS (FY2026) | $8.60 |
| Fair Value | $214.93 |
| Period | EPS Est. | Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (actual) | $2.21 | — | — |
| FY2026E | $8.60 | +289.0% | 10 |
| FY2027E | $11.03 | +28.4% | 9 |
| FY2028E | $13.01 | +17.9% | 8 |
| FY2029E | $15.25 | +17.2% | 7 |
| FY2030E | $17.42 | +14.2% | 7 |
5Y Forward EPS CAGR: 51.1%
The PEG Fair Value uses the Price/Earnings-to-Growth framework. A stock is fairly valued when its P/E ratio equals its earnings growth rate (PEG = 1.0). This model adds dividend yield to the growth rate per the original PEGY formula.
Growth rate priority: analyst consensus forward EPS CAGR (when ≥ 3 analysts cover the stock), falling back to historical EPS CAGR. Using EPS rather than net income avoids distortion from share buybacks. The growth rate is clamped between 8% and 25% — below 8% would undervalue stable earners, while above 25% would overvalue unsustainable spikes.
| Year | Net Income | EPS | YoY |
|---|
| FY2021 | $-1.3B | $-2.62 | — |
| FY2022 | $-1.2B | $-3.26 | — |
| FY2023 | $1.5B | $3.58 | — |
| FY2024 | $2.7B | $7.00 | +95.5% |
| FY2025 | $944.0M | $2.21 | -68.4% |
4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 13.6%