Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 12.4% plus 2.3% dividend yield, Union Pacific Corporation has a fair value of $154.78 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $12.47. The current PEG ratio is 1.54.
PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.
PEG works well for steady growers with predictable earnings.
| EPS Growth RateForward | 10.1% |
| Dividend Yield | +2.3% |
| Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%) | 12.4% |
| Fair P/E | 12.4x |
| NTM EPS (FY2026) | $12.47 |
| Fair Value | $154.78 |
| Period | EPS Est. | Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (actual) | $11.97 | — | — |
| FY2026E | $12.47 | +4.2% | 17 |
| FY2027E | $13.59 | +9.0% | 16 |
| FY2028E | $14.99 | +10.4% | 7 |
| FY2029E | $17.53 | +16.9% | 3 |
| FY2030E | $19.39 | +10.6% | 6 |
5Y Forward EPS CAGR: 10.1%
| Year | Net Income | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $6.5B | $9.95 | — |
| FY2022 | $7.0B | $11.21 | +12.7% |
| FY2023 | $6.4B | $10.45 | -6.8% |
| FY2024 | $6.7B | $11.09 | +6.1% |
| FY2025 | $7.1B | $11.97 | +7.9% |
4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 4.7%
The PEG Fair Value uses the Price/Earnings-to-Growth framework. A stock is fairly valued when its P/E ratio equals its earnings growth rate (PEG = 1.0). This model adds dividend yield to the growth rate per the original PEGY formula.
Growth rate priority: analyst consensus forward EPS CAGR (when ≥ 3 analysts cover the stock), falling back to historical EPS CAGR. Using EPS rather than net income avoids distortion from share buybacks. The growth rate is clamped between 8% and 25% — below 8% would undervalue stable earners, while above 25% would overvalue unsustainable spikes.