Using the Earnings Power Value framework with a WACC of 8.3% and normalized earnings of $6.9B, Union Pacific Corporation has a fair value of $87.86 per share. The EPV range is $66.53 – $118.61 based on WACC sensitivity (6.8% – 9.8%).
| Low | Selected | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | 6,860 | 6,860 | 6,860 |
| (/) WACC | 9.8% | 8.3% | 6.8% |
| Enterprise Value | 70,023 | 82,683 | 100,931 |
| (-) Net debt | 30,539 | 30,539 | 30,539 |
| Equity Value | 39,484 | 52,144 | 70,392 |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 594 | 594 | 594 |
| Fair Price | $66.53 | $87.86 | $118.61 |
Earnings Power Value (EPV) estimates what a company is worth based on its current normalized earnings, assuming zero growth. It values the business as a perpetuity: Normalized Earnings / WACC. This gives a conservative floor value — the company's worth if it never grows but maintains its current profitability.
The model normalizes earnings by: (1) using sustainable gross margins (5-year average) applied to current revenue, (2) deducting maintenance-level operating expenses (average R&D + SG&A as % of revenue), (3) applying the average effective tax rate, and (4) subtracting the average excess of CapEx over D&A (net reinvestment needed to maintain current capacity).
EPV is most useful as a comparison anchor: if the market price is below EPV, the stock may be undervalued even without any growth. If market price exceeds EPV, the premium reflects growth expectations — which may or may not materialize.