Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Tesla, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 9.9% to 32.1% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 15, DPO 74, DIO 61). At a 8.6% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (94% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 20.3x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $181.66 per share, suggesting TSLA is overvalued by 52.9% at the current price of $385.95.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 10,320 | 11,985 | 14,213 | 21,157 | 27,945 | 28,644 |
| (−) Net Interest | 375 | 436 | 517 | 769 | 1,016 | 1,042 |
| (+) D&A | 8,791 | 9,419 | 10,575 | 11,867 | 14,172 | 14,526 |
| EBITDA | 19,486 | 21,840 | 25,305 | 33,794 | 43,134 | 44,212 |
| (−) Tax | 341 | 396 | 470 | 699 | 923 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 11,153 | 12,953 | 15,361 | 22,866 | 30,203 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | -2,246 | 218 | 292 | 909 | 889 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 10,237 | 8,272 | 9,182 | 9,319 | 11,119 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 20.3x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 895,736 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.59% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 9,824 | 7,311 | 7,474 | 6,985 | 7,675 | 593,370 |
| Enterprise Value | 632,640 | |||||
| Projection Period | 39,269 | 6.2% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 593,370 | 93.8% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | (8,137) | |||||
| Equity Value | 640,777 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 3528M | |||||
| Fair Price | $182 | -52.9% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 16.3x | 18.3x | 20.3x | 22.3x | 24.3x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.6% | $162 | $180 | $199 | $217 | $235 |
| 7.6% | $155 | $172 | $190 | $207 | $225 |
| 8.6% | $148 | $165 | $182 | $198 | $215 |
| 9.6% | $142 | $158 | $174 | $190 | $206 |
| 10.6% | $136 | $151 | $167 | $182 | $197 |
Current price: $385.95. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.