Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 25.0%, Tesla, Inc. has a fair value of $49.56 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $1.98. The current PEG ratio is 3.24.
PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.
Growth above 25% is capped — hypergrowth may not be sustainable long-term.
| EPS Growth RateForward | 60.2% |
| Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped | 25.0% |
| Fair P/E | 25.0x |
| NTM EPS (FY2026) | $1.98 |
| Fair Value | $49.56 |
| Period | EPS Est. | Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (actual) | $1.08 | — | — |
| FY2026E | $1.98 | +83.6% | 34 |
| FY2027E | $2.63 | +32.7% | 33 |
| FY2028E | $3.69 | +40.4% | 25 |
| FY2029E | $8.21 | +122.2% | 12 |
| FY2030E | $11.38 | +38.7% | 12 |
5Y Forward EPS CAGR: 60.2%
The PEG Fair Value uses the Price/Earnings-to-Growth framework. A stock is fairly valued when its P/E ratio equals its earnings growth rate (PEG = 1.0). This model adds dividend yield to the growth rate per the original PEGY formula.
Growth rate priority: analyst consensus forward EPS CAGR (when ≥ 3 analysts cover the stock), falling back to historical EPS CAGR. Using EPS rather than net income avoids distortion from share buybacks. The growth rate is clamped between 8% and 25% — below 8% would undervalue stable earners, while above 25% would overvalue unsustainable spikes.
| Year | Net Income | EPS | YoY |
|---|
| FY2021 | $5.5B | $1.63 | — |
| FY2022 | $12.6B | $3.62 | +122.1% |
| FY2023 | $15.0B | $4.31 | +19.1% |
| FY2024 | $7.1B | $2.04 | -52.7% |
| FY2025 | $3.8B | $1.08 | -47.0% |
4Y Historical EPS CAGR: -9.8%