Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Smurfit Westrock Plc's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 12.0% to 7.5% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 60, DPO 66, DIO 56). At a 7.7% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (91% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 13.0x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $93.68 per share, suggesting SW is undervalued by 131.9% at the current price of $40.39.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 2,500 | 2,574 | 2,647 | 2,897 | 3,113 | 3,191 |
| (−) Net Interest | 555 | 571 | 587 | 643 | 691 | 708 |
| (+) D&A | 1,179 | 1,499 | 1,787 | 2,088 | 2,329 | 2,387 |
| EBITDA | 4,233 | 4,643 | 5,021 | 5,628 | 6,132 | 6,286 |
| (−) Tax | 749 | 771 | 793 | 868 | 932 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 2,302 | 2,370 | 2,438 | 2,668 | 2,867 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 817 | 135 | 132 | 453 | 393 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 365 | 1,368 | 1,658 | 1,639 | 1,940 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 13.0x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 81,966 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.67% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 351 | 1,224 | 1,379 | 1,266 | 1,392 | 56,656 |
| Enterprise Value | 62,267 | |||||
| Projection Period | 5,612 | 9.0% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 56,656 | 91.0% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 11,762 | |||||
| Equity Value | 50,505 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 539M | |||||
| Fair Price | $94 | +132.0% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 9.0x | 11.0x | 13.0x | 15.0x | 17.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.7% | $69 | $87 | $105 | $122 | $140 |
| 6.7% | $65 | $82 | $99 | $116 | $133 |
| 7.7% | $61 | $78 | $94 | $110 | $126 |
| 8.7% | $58 | $73 | $89 | $104 | $119 |
| 9.7% | $54 | $69 | $84 | $99 | $113 |
Current price: $40.39. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.