Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 25.0% plus 3.6% dividend yield, Smurfit Westrock Plc has a fair value of $62.69 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $2.51. The current PEG ratio is 0.36.
PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.
Growth above 25% is capped — hypergrowth may not be sustainable long-term.
| EPS Growth RateForward | 40.6% |
| Dividend Yield | +3.6% |
| Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped | 25.0% |
| Fair P/E | 25.0x |
| NTM EPS (FY2026) | $2.51 |
| Fair Value | $62.69 |
| Period | EPS Est. | Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (actual) | $1.23 | — | — |
| FY2026E | $2.51 | +103.9% | 8 |
| FY2027E | $3.18 | +26.9% | 7 |
| FY2028E | $3.81 | +19.7% | 4 |
| FY2029E | $4.80 | +26.1% | 3 |
4Y Forward EPS CAGR: 40.6%
| Year | Net Income | EPS | YoY |
|---|
The PEG Fair Value uses the Price/Earnings-to-Growth framework. A stock is fairly valued when its P/E ratio equals its earnings growth rate (PEG = 1.0). This model adds dividend yield to the growth rate per the original PEGY formula.
Growth rate priority: analyst consensus forward EPS CAGR (when ≥ 3 analysts cover the stock), falling back to historical EPS CAGR. Using EPS rather than net income avoids distortion from share buybacks. The growth rate is clamped between 8% and 25% — below 8% would undervalue stable earners, while above 25% would overvalue unsustainable spikes.
| FY2021 | $704.6M | $3.09 | — |
| FY2022 | $965.7M | $3.80 | +23.0% |
| FY2023 | $747.3M | $3.22 | -15.3% |
| FY2024 | $307.9M | $0.79 | -75.5% |
| FY2025 | $659.7M | $1.23 | +55.7% |
4Y Historical EPS CAGR: -20.6%