Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Regency Centers Corporation's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 6.4% to 6.0% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 58, DPO 339, DIO 60). At a 6.9% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (78% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 14.4x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $91.45 per share, suggesting REG is undervalued by 22.8% at the current price of $74.49.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 784 | 822 | 872 | 961 | 1,019 | 1,044 |
| (−) Net Interest | 202 | 212 | 225 | 248 | 263 | 269 |
| (+) D&A | 278 | 291 | 329 | 363 | 374 | 384 |
| EBITDA | 1,265 | 1,325 | 1,425 | 1,571 | 1,656 | 1,697 |
| (−) Tax | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 328 | 344 | 364 | 401 | 426 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | -434 | -8 | -10 | -18 | -12 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 1,369 | 987 | 1,068 | 1,185 | 1,239 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 14.4x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 24,460 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.91% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 1,324 | 893 | 904 | 938 | 917 | 17,510 |
| Enterprise Value | 22,485 | |||||
| Projection Period | 4,975 | 22.1% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 17,510 | 77.9% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 5,816 | |||||
| Equity Value | 16,669 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 182M | |||||
| Fair Price | $91 | +22.8% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 10.4x | 12.4x | 14.4x | 16.4x | 18.4x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.9% | $73 | $88 | $102 | $117 | $132 |
| 5.9% | $69 | $83 | $97 | $111 | $125 |
| 6.9% | $65 | $78 | $91 | $105 | $118 |
| 7.9% | $61 | $74 | $86 | $99 | $112 |
| 8.9% | $57 | $70 | $82 | $94 | $106 |
Current price: $74.49. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.