Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Nucor Corporation's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 10.3% to -1.5% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 34, DPO 25, DIO 74). At a 7.7% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (86% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 18.1x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $620.39 per share, suggesting NUE is undervalued by 272.0% at the current price of $166.79.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 6,024 | 6,282 | 6,534 | 6,913 | 6,810 | 6,981 |
| (−) Net Interest | 187 | 195 | 203 | 214 | 211 | 216 |
| (+) D&A | 2,476 | 2,673 | 2,827 | 2,949 | 2,913 | 2,986 |
| EBITDA | 8,687 | 9,149 | 9,563 | 10,076 | 9,934 | 10,183 |
| (−) Tax | 1,279 | 1,333 | 1,387 | 1,467 | 1,446 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 2,606 | 2,718 | 2,827 | 2,991 | 2,947 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 430 | 304 | 298 | 447 | -120 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 4,371 | 4,794 | 5,052 | 5,171 | 5,663 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 18.1x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 184,511 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.69% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 4,212 | 4,290 | 4,198 | 3,990 | 4,057 | 127,395 |
| Enterprise Value | 148,143 | |||||
| Projection Period | 20,747 | 14.0% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 127,395 | 86.0% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 4,861 | |||||
| Equity Value | 143,282 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 231M | |||||
| Fair Price | $621 | +272.0% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 14.1x | 16.1x | 18.1x | 20.1x | 22.1x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.7% | $545 | $612 | $679 | $746 | $813 |
| 6.7% | $521 | $585 | $649 | $713 | $776 |
| 7.7% | $499 | $559 | $620 | $681 | $742 |
| 8.7% | $477 | $535 | $593 | $652 | $710 |
| 9.7% | $457 | $512 | $568 | $623 | $679 |
Current price: $166.79. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.