Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Marriott International, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 6.7% to -9.1% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 44, DPO 17, DIO 60). At a 8.1% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (84% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 19.8x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $249.16 per share, suggesting MAR is overvalued by 23.7% at the current price of $326.52.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 3,899 | 4,099 | 4,213 | 4,218 | 3,836 | 3,932 |
| (−) Net Interest | 739 | 776 | 798 | 799 | 727 | 745 |
| (+) D&A | 464 | 541 | 593 | 625 | 597 | 612 |
| EBITDA | 5,102 | 5,416 | 5,604 | 5,642 | 5,161 | 5,290 |
| (−) Tax | 685 | 720 | 740 | 741 | 674 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 566 | 595 | 611 | 612 | 557 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 3,872 | 306 | 174 | 9 | -584 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | -22 | 3,795 | 4,079 | 4,281 | 4,514 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 19.8x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 104,524 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.13% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | -21 | 3,375 | 3,355 | 3,256 | 3,176 | 70,722 |
| Enterprise Value | 83,863 | |||||
| Projection Period | 13,142 | 15.7% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 70,722 | 84.3% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 16,725 | |||||
| Equity Value | 67,138 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 269M | |||||
| Fair Price | $249 | -23.7% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 15.8x | 17.8x | 19.8x | 21.8x | 23.8x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.1% | $219 | $248 | $278 | $307 | $336 |
| 7.1% | $207 | $235 | $263 | $291 | $319 |
| 8.1% | $196 | $223 | $249 | $276 | $302 |
| 9.1% | $185 | $211 | $236 | $261 | $287 |
| 10.1% | $175 | $199 | $224 | $248 | $272 |
Current price: $326.52. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.