Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 15.8% plus 0.8% dividend yield, Marriott International, Inc. has a fair value of $182.17 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $11.55. The current PEG ratio is 1.79.
PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.
PEG works well for steady growers with predictable earnings.
| EPS Growth RateForward | 14.9% |
| Dividend Yield | +0.8% |
| Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%) | 15.8% |
| Fair P/E | 15.8x |
| NTM EPS (FY2026) | $11.55 |
| Fair Value | $182.17 |
| Period | EPS Est. | Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (actual) | $9.49 | — | — |
| FY2026E | $11.55 | +21.7% | 16 |
| FY2027E | $12.93 | +12.0% | 14 |
| FY2028E | $14.24 | +10.1% | 10 |
| FY2029E | $15.91 | +11.7% | 5 |
| FY2030E | $19.04 | +19.6% | 5 |
5Y Forward EPS CAGR: 14.9%
| Year | Net Income | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $1.1B | $3.34 | — |
| FY2022 | $2.4B | $7.24 | +116.8% |
| FY2023 | $3.1B | $10.18 | +40.6% |
| FY2024 | $2.4B | $8.33 | -18.2% |
| FY2025 | $2.6B | $9.49 | +13.9% |
4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 29.8%
The PEG Fair Value uses the Price/Earnings-to-Growth framework. A stock is fairly valued when its P/E ratio equals its earnings growth rate (PEG = 1.0). This model adds dividend yield to the growth rate per the original PEGY formula.
Growth rate priority: analyst consensus forward EPS CAGR (when ≥ 3 analysts cover the stock), falling back to historical EPS CAGR. Using EPS rather than net income avoids distortion from share buybacks. The growth rate is clamped between 8% and 25% — below 8% would undervalue stable earners, while above 25% would overvalue unsustainable spikes.