Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 16.2% plus 0.6% dividend yield, Mastercard Incorporated has a fair value of $317.91 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $19.58. The current PEG ratio is 1.58.
PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.
PEG is most informative for high-growth companies — the PEG sweet spot.
| EPS Growth RateForward | 15.6% |
| Dividend Yield | +0.6% |
| Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%) | 16.2% |
| Fair P/E | 16.2x |
| NTM EPS (FY2026) | $19.58 |
| Fair Value | $317.91 |
| Period | EPS Est. | Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (actual) | $16.52 | — | — |
| FY2026E | $19.58 | +18.5% | 26 |
| FY2027E | $22.65 | +15.7% | 27 |
| FY2028E | $26.33 | +16.2% | 17 |
| FY2029E | $29.70 | +12.8% | 14 |
| FY2030E | $34.13 | +14.9% | 8 |
5Y Forward EPS CAGR: 15.6%
| Year | Net Income | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $8.7B | $8.76 | — |
| FY2022 | $9.9B | $10.23 | +16.8% |
| FY2023 | $11.2B | $11.83 | +15.6% |
| FY2024 | $12.9B | $13.89 | +17.4% |
| FY2025 | $15.0B | $16.52 | +18.9% |
4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 17.2%
The PEG Fair Value uses the Price/Earnings-to-Growth framework. A stock is fairly valued when its P/E ratio equals its earnings growth rate (PEG = 1.0). This model adds dividend yield to the growth rate per the original PEGY formula.
Growth rate priority: analyst consensus forward EPS CAGR (when ≥ 3 analysts cover the stock), falling back to historical EPS CAGR. Using EPS rather than net income avoids distortion from share buybacks. The growth rate is clamped between 8% and 25% — below 8% would undervalue stable earners, while above 25% would overvalue unsustainable spikes.