Mastercard Incorporated

Financial ServicesFinancial - Credit ServicesNYSE

$499.81

Market Cap: $441.62B

Mastercard Incorporated (MA) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 6, 2026 22:27

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$396.80 – $3,662.53	$704.15	+40.4%
Growth Exit 10Y	$507.05 – $4,574.78	$892.66	+78.0%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$300.67 – $607.00	$441.05	-12.1%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$406.15 – $847.47	$594.42	+18.5%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$283.57 – $695.36	$357.77	-28.7%
EV/EBITDA	$198.18 – $313.69	$311.28	-37.9%
EV/Revenue	$48.25 – $126.24	$93.72	-81.3%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$317.90 – $317.90	$317.90	-36.6%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$202.89 – $314.41	$247.02	-50.7%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$80.49 – $283.27	$134.37	-73.2%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$704.15

Market Price

$499.81

Upside / Downside

+40.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Mastercard Incorporated's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 12.8% to 11.0% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 58, DPO 59, DIO 60). At a 7.2% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (85% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 6 FCFF at a 3.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $704.15 per share, suggesting MA is undervalued by 40.9% at the current price of $499.81.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.19%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

3.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	21,584	24,244	27,199	30,049	33,354	34,522
(−) Net Interest	828	930	1,043	1,153	1,279	1,324
(+) D&A	649	692	703	888	1,080	1,118
EBITDA	23,061	25,866	28,946	32,090	35,714	36,964

(−) Tax	3,627	4,075	4,571	5,050	5,606	5,802
(−) CapEx	1,028	1,155	1,296	1,432	1,589	1,645
(−) ΔWC	666	727	808	779	904	936
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	17,739	19,909	22,271	24,829	27,615	28,582

Terminal Value						773,796
WACC / Discount Rate	7.2%
Long-term Growth Rate	3.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	17,133	17,939	18,720	19,470	20,202	546,739

Enterprise Value	640,203
Projection Period	93,464	14.6%
Terminal Value	546,739	85.4%

(−) Current Net Debt	7,873

Equity Value	632,330
(/) Outstanding Shares	898

Fair Price	$704.15

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%	4.0%	4.5%
5.2%	$1018	$1227	$1559	$2171	$3663
6.2%	$736	$836	$973	$1172	$1489
7.2%	$574	$632	$704	$799	$930
8.2%	$470	$506	$550	$605	$674
9.2%	$397	$422	$451	$485	$527

Current price: $499.81. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$892.66

Market Price

$499.81

Upside / Downside

+78.6%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Mastercard Incorporated's cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 12.8% to 5.0% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 58, DPO 59, DIO 60). At a 7.2% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (75% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 11 FCFF at a 3.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $892.66 per share, suggesting MA is undervalued by 78.6% at the current price of $499.81.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.19%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

3.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	21,584	24,244	27,199	30,049	33,354	37,633	41,721	45,432	48,581	50,994	52,778
(−) Net Interest	828	930	1,043	1,153	1,279	1,443	1,600	1,743	1,863	1,956	2,024
(+) D&A	649	692	703	888	1,080	1,300	1,453	1,619	1,793	1,970	2,039
EBITDA	23,061	25,866	28,946	32,090	35,714	40,376	44,774	48,794	52,238	54,919	56,841

(−) Tax	3,627	4,075	4,571	5,050	5,606	6,325	7,012	7,635	8,165	8,570	8,870
(−) CapEx	1,028	1,155	1,296	1,432	1,589	1,793	1,988	2,165	2,315	2,430	2,515
(−) ΔWC	666	727	808	779	904	1,170	1,118	1,015	861	660	683
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	17,739	19,909	22,271	24,829	27,615	31,089	34,657	37,979	40,897	43,260	44,774

Terminal Value											1,212,175
WACC / Discount Rate	7.2%
Long-term Growth Rate	3.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	17,133	17,939	18,720	19,470	20,202	21,216	22,064	22,557	22,660	22,360	605,163

Enterprise Value	809,485
Projection Period	204,322	25.2%
Terminal Value	605,163	74.8%

(−) Current Net Debt	7,873

Equity Value	801,612
(/) Outstanding Shares	898

Fair Price	$892.66

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%	4.0%	4.5%
5.2%	$1358	$1613	$2017	$2760	$4575
6.2%	$970	$1086	$1245	$1477	$1844
7.2%	$749	$812	$893	$998	$1143
8.2%	$606	$645	$691	$749	$822
9.2%	$507	$532	$561	$596	$639

Current price: $499.81. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$440.95

Market Price

$499.81

Upside / Downside

-11.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Mastercard Incorporated's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 12.8% to 11.0% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 58, DPO 59, DIO 60). At a 7.2% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (77% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 12.0x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $441.05 per share, suggesting MA is fairly valued by 11.8% at the current price of $499.81.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.19%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

12.00x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	21,584	24,244	27,199	30,049	33,354	34,188
(−) Net Interest	828	930	1,043	1,153	1,279	1,311
(+) D&A	649	692	703	888	1,080	1,107
EBITDA	23,061	25,866	28,946	32,090	35,714	36,607

(−) Tax	3,627	4,075	4,571	5,050	5,606	—
(−) CapEx	1,028	1,155	1,296	1,432	1,589	—
(−) ΔWC	666	727	808	779	904	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	17,739	19,909	22,271	24,829	27,615	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						12.0x
Terminal Value						439,279
WACC / Discount Rate	7.19%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	17,133	17,939	18,720	19,470	20,202	310,380

Enterprise Value	403,845
Projection Period	93,464	23.1%
Terminal Value	310,380	76.9%

(−) Current Net Debt	7,873
Equity Value	395,972
(÷) Outstanding Shares	898M
Fair Price	$441	-11.8%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	8.0x	10.0x	12.0x	14.0x	16.0x
5.2%	$354	$417	$480	$544	$607
6.2%	$339	$400	$460	$521	$581
7.2%	$326	$383	$441	$499	$556
8.2%	$313	$368	$423	$478	$533
9.2%	$301	$353	$406	$458	$511

Current price: $499.81. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$594.31

Market Price

$499.81

Upside / Downside

+18.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Mastercard Incorporated's cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 12.8% to 5.0% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 58, DPO 59, DIO 60). At a 7.2% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (62% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 12.0x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $594.42 per share, suggesting MA is undervalued by 18.9% at the current price of $499.81.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.19%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

12.00x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	21,584	24,244	27,199	30,049	33,354	37,633	41,721	45,432	48,581	50,994	52,268
(−) Net Interest	828	930	1,043	1,153	1,279	1,443	1,600	1,743	1,863	1,956	2,005
(+) D&A	649	692	703	888	1,080	1,300	1,453	1,619	1,793	1,970	2,019
EBITDA	23,061	25,866	28,946	32,090	35,714	40,376	44,774	48,794	52,238	54,919	56,292

(−) Tax	3,627	4,075	4,571	5,050	5,606	6,325	7,012	7,635	8,165	8,570	—
(−) CapEx	1,028	1,155	1,296	1,432	1,589	1,793	1,988	2,165	2,315	2,430	—
(−) ΔWC	666	727	808	779	904	1,170	1,118	1,015	861	660	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	17,739	19,909	22,271	24,829	27,615	31,089	34,657	37,979	40,897	43,260	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											12.0x
Terminal Value											675,506
WACC / Discount Rate	7.19%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	17,133	17,939	18,720	19,470	20,202	21,216	22,064	22,557	22,660	22,360	337,238

Enterprise Value	541,560
Projection Period	204,322	37.7%
Terminal Value	337,238	62.3%

(−) Current Net Debt	7,873
Equity Value	533,687
(÷) Outstanding Shares	898M
Fair Price	$594	+18.9%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	8.0x	10.0x	12.0x	14.0x	16.0x
5.2%	$545	$621	$696	$772	$847
6.2%	$505	$574	$643	$712	$780
7.2%	$469	$532	$594	$657	$720
8.2%	$436	$493	$550	$607	$664
9.2%	$406	$458	$510	$562	$614

Current price: $499.81. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$358.43

Market Price

$499.81

Upside / Downside

-28.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), Mastercard Incorporated (MA) has a fair value of $358.43 based on 6 comparable companies in the Financial - Credit Services industry.

P/E Valuation — Financial - Credit Services

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
Mastercard IncorporatedMA	448,829	30.3x	25.4x
Visa Inc.V	584,832	29.7x	23.6x
American Express CompanyAXP	209,864	19.9x	17.4x
Capital One Financial CorporationCOF	114,566	54.8x	13.5x
PayPal Holdings, Inc.PYPL	42,553	8.4x	8.6x
SoFi Technologies, Inc.SOFI	20,748	41.7x	44.5x
Ally Financial Inc.ALLY	12,463	17.0x	13.5x
Industry Median		24.8x	15.4x
(*) Profit after tax		14,968	17,662
Equity Value		371,292	272,442
(/) Outstanding shares		898	898
Fair Price		$413	$303

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$358.43

-28.3%

Fair Value

$311.03

Market Price

$499.81

Upside / Downside

-37.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), Mastercard Incorporated (MA) has a fair value of $311.03 based on 6 comparable companies in the Financial - Credit Services industry.

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Financial - Credit Services

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
Mastercard IncorporatedMA	448,829	22.6x	20.0x
Visa Inc.V	584,832	22.7x	20.3x
American Express CompanyAXP	209,864	14.1x	14.4x
Capital One Financial CorporationCOF	114,566	14.3x	25.4x
PayPal Holdings, Inc.PYPL	42,553	5.8x	5.6x
SoFi Technologies, Inc.SOFI	20,748	9.2x	12.3x
Ally Financial Inc.ALLY	12,463	9.9x	14.8x
Industry Median		12.0x	14.6x
(*) EBITDA		20,194	22,833
= Enterprise Value		242,399	333,073
(-) Net Debt		8,434	8,434
Equity Value		233,965	324,639
(/) Outstanding shares		898	898
Fair Price		$261	$362

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$311.03

-37.8%

Fair Value

$93.22

Market Price

$499.81

Upside / Downside

-81.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Mastercard Incorporated (MA) has a fair value of $93.22 based on 6 comparable companies in the Financial - Credit Services industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Financial - Credit Services

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Mastercard IncorporatedMA	448,829	13.9x	12.3x
Visa Inc.V	584,832	14.7x	13.2x
American Express CompanyAXP	209,864	2.7x	2.8x
Capital One Financial CorporationCOF	114,566	1.6x	2.8x
PayPal Holdings, Inc.PYPL	42,553	1.3x	1.3x
SoFi Technologies, Inc.SOFI	20,748	3.7x	5.0x
Ally Financial Inc.ALLY	12,463	2.0x	3.0x
Industry Median		2.4x	2.9x
(*) Revenue		32,791	37,075
= Enterprise Value		77,452	106,833
(-) Net Debt		8,434	8,434
Equity Value		69,018	98,399
(/) Outstanding shares		898	898
Fair Price		$77	$110

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$93.22

-81.3%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$317.90

Market Price

$499.81

Upside / Downside

-36.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 16.2% plus 0.6% dividend yield, the company has a fair value of $317.90 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $19.58. The current PEG ratio is 1.58.

PEG Ratio

1.58Pricey

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ (Growth + Yield) = 25.6 ÷ (15.6% + 0.6%) = 1.58

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: Fast GrowerPEG highly applicable

PEG is most informative for high-growth companies — the PEG sweet spot.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateForward	15.6%
Dividend Yield	+0.6%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)	16.2%
Fair P/E	16.2x
NTM EPS (FY2026)	$19.58
Fair Value	$317.90

Growth Analysis

Forward GrowthActive

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$16.52	—	—
FY2026E	$19.58	+18.5%	26
FY2027E	$22.65	+15.7%	27
FY2028E	$26.33	+16.2%	17
FY2029E	$29.70	+12.8%	14
FY2030E	$34.13	+14.9%	8

5Y Forward EPS CAGR: 15.6%

Historical Growth

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$8.7B	$8.76	—
FY2022	$9.9B	$10.23	+16.8%
FY2023	$11.2B	$11.83	+15.6%
FY2024	$12.9B	$13.89	+17.4%
FY2025	$15.0B	$16.52	+18.9%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 17.2%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$247.02

Market Price

$499.81

Upside / Downside

-50.6%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Earnings Power Value framework with a WACC of 7.2% and normalized earnings of $16.5B, the company has a fair value of $247.02 per share. The EPV range is $202.89 – $314.41 based on WACC sensitivity (5.7% – 8.7%).

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	16,524	16,524	16,524
(/) WACC	8.7%	7.2%	5.7%
Enterprise Value	190,065	229,696	290,210
(-) Net debt	7,873	7,873	7,873
Equity Value	182,192	221,823	282,337
(/) Outstanding shares	898	898	898
Fair Price	$202.89	$247.02	$314.41

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$134.37

Market Price

$499.81

Upside / Downside

-73.1%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model with a Cost of Equity of 7.4% and projected dividend growth of 14.9%, the fair value is $134.37 per share. The DDM range is $80.49 – $283.27 based on sensitivity analysis across Cost of Equity and growth rate assumptions.

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$3.07

Dividend Yield

0.62%

Payout Ratio

18.4%

Dividend Coverage

5.43x

FCF Payout Ratio16.3%

DPS CAGR (4Y)15.0%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$3.07	18.4%	+16.2%
2024	$2.64	19.0%	+15.8%
2023	$2.28	19.3%	+16.4%
2022	$1.96	19.2%	+11.7%
2021	$1.76	20.0%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$3.53	14.9%	0.9314	$3.29
2027	$4.06	14.9%	0.8674	$3.52
2028	$4.66	14.9%	0.8079	$3.77
2029	$5.36	14.9%	0.7525	$4.03
2030	$6.16	14.9%	0.7008	$4.32
Terminal Value	$6.37 DPS	3.5%		$115.46

PV of Projected Dividends$18.92

PV of Terminal Value$115.46

Fair Value per Share$134.37

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	12.9%	13.9%	14.9%	15.0%	15.0%
5.4%	$259	$271	$283	$283	$283
6.4%	$168	$175	$183	$183	$183
7.4%	$124	$129	$134	$135	$135
8.4%	$98	$102	$106	$106	$106
9.4%	$80	$84	$87	$87	$87

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.