Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Horizon Technology Finance Corporation (HRZN) has a fair value of $33.30 based on 2 comparable companies in the Asset Management industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing EV/Revenue | Forward EV/Revenue | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Horizon Technology Finance CorporationHRZN | 179 | 13.6x | 5.8x |
| TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. | 211 | 6.8x | 6.0x |
| TON Strategy Co. | 135 | 142.5x | 12.3x |
| Industry Median | 74.7x | 9.1x | |
| (*) Revenue | 40 | 94 | |
| = Enterprise Value | 2,988 | 567 | |
| (-) Net Debt | 368 | 368 | |
| Equity Value | 2,621 | 200 | |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 42 | 42 | |
| Fair Price | $62 | $5 | |
Using the Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model with a Cost of Equity of 9.9% and projected dividend growth of 0.0%, the fair value is $17.47 per share. The DDM range is $13.37 – $27.71 based on sensitivity analysis across Cost of Equity and growth rate assumptions.
| Year | DPS | Payout Ratio | YoY Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $1.25 | 116.8% | — |
| 2024 | — | — | -100.0% |
| 2023 | $1.31 | — | +8.4% |
| 2022 | $1.21 | 141.1% | -1.5% |
| 2021 | $1.23 | 88.4% | — |
| Year | Projected DPS | Growth | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.25 | 0.0% | 0.9101 | $1.14 |
| 2027 | $1.25 | 0.0% | 0.8283 | $1.04 |
| 2028 | $1.25 | 0.0% | 0.7538 | $0.95 |
| 2029 | $1.25 | 0.0% | 0.6860 | $0.86 |
| 2030 | $1.25 | 0.0% | 0.6244 | $0.78 |
| Terminal Value | $1.30 DPS | 3.5% | $12.70 |
Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.
| Ke \ Growth | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 2.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.9% | $25 | $25 | $25 | $26 | $28 |
| 8.9% | $21 | $21 | $21 | $22 | $23 |
| 9.9% | $17 | $17 | $17 | $18 | $19 |
| 10.9% | $15 | $15 | $15 | $16 | $17 |
| 11.9% | $13 | $13 | $13 | $14 | $15 |
Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.