GrowGeneration Corp.

GRWG

Consumer CyclicalSpecialty RetailNASDAQ

$1.42

Market Cap: $85.33M

GrowGeneration Corp. (GRWG) Valuation Summary

Updated May 11, 2026 20:28

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$0.38 – $6.88	$1.75	+23.0%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$0.14 – $3.75	$0.90	-36.7%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$1.24 – $1.38	$1.39	-1.9%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

GrowGeneration Corp. (GRWG) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.90

Market Price

$1.42

Upside / Downside

-36.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -15.0% to a target of 7.7% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 7.7%, GrowGeneration Corp. (GRWG) has an intrinsic value of $0.90 per share (range: $0.14 – $3.75).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-15.0%

Target Operating Margin

7.7%

WACC

7.7%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

2.7%

Target CapEx/Rev

10.1%

D&A/Revenue

6.8%

Tax Rate

16.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	165	1.9%	-10.5%	-17	-17	11	(6)	-1	-11	-11
2027	173	4.8%	-5.9%	-10	-10	12	(7)	2	-8	-7
2028	155	-10.0%	-1.4%	-2	-2	10	(8)	-4	5	4
2029	140	-10.0%	3.2%	4	4	9	(8)	-4	9	7
2030	126	-10.0%	7.7%	10	8	8	(8)	-3	12	9
2031	113	-10.0%	7.7%	9	7	8	(8)	-3	10	7
2032	102	-10.0%	7.7%	8	7	7	(8)	-3	8	5
2033	93	-9.2%	7.7%	7	6	6	(8)	-2	7	4
2034	88	-5.1%	7.7%	7	6	6	(8)	-1	5	2
2035	87	-1.1%	7.7%	7	6	6	(9)	-0	3	1

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)21

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)64

PV of Terminal Value31

Enterprise Value53

(–) Net Debt-1

Equity Value54

(÷) Shares Outstanding60

Fair Value per Share$0.90

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	1.7%	4.7%	7.7%	10.7%	13.7%
5.7%	$-0	$0	$2	$3	$4
6.7%	$-0	$0	$1	$2	$3
7.7%	$-0	$0	$1	$2	$2
8.7%	$-0	$0	$1	$1	$2
9.7%	$-0	$0	$1	$1	$2

Current price: $1.42. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 24.6% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

GrowGeneration Corp. (GRWG) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$1.75

Market Price

$1.42

Upside / Downside

+23.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-15.0%

Target Operating Margin

7.7%

WACC

7.7%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

2.7%

Target CapEx/Rev

10.1%

D&A/Revenue

6.8%

Tax Rate

16.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	165	1.9%	-10.5%	-17	-17	11	(7)	-1	-12	-12
2027	173	4.8%	-5.9%	-10	-10	12	(10)	2	-10	-9
2028	155	-10.0%	-1.4%	-2	-2	10	(11)	-4	1	1
2029	140	-10.0%	3.2%	4	4	9	(12)	-4	5	4
2030	126	-10.0%	7.7%	10	8	8	(13)	-3	7	5

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-11

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)160

PV of Terminal Value114

Enterprise Value103

(–) Net Debt-1

Equity Value104

(÷) Shares Outstanding60

Fair Value per Share$1.75

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	1.7%	4.7%	7.7%	10.7%	13.7%
5.7%	$-0	$2	$3	$5	$7
6.7%	$-0	$1	$2	$4	$5
7.7%	$-0	$1	$2	$3	$4
8.7%	$-0	$1	$1	$2	$3
9.7%	$-0	$0	$1	$2	$2

Current price: $1.42. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 24.6% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$1.39

Market Price

$1.42

Upside / Downside

-1.9%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), GrowGeneration Corp. (GRWG) has a fair value of $1.39 based on 6 comparable companies in the Specialty Retail industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Specialty Retail

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
GrowGeneration Corp.GRWG	85	0.5x	0.4x
Duluth Holdings Inc.DLTH	124	0.5x	0.4x
Full House Resorts, Inc.FLL	107	2.0x	2.1x
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc.RRGB	67	0.5x	0.4x
Purple Innovation, Inc.PRPL	56	0.5x	0.5x
Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings, Inc.SPWH	55	0.4x	0.4x
QVC Group Inc.QVCGA	3	0.5x	0.4x
Industry Median		0.5x	0.4x
(*) Revenue		162	207
= Enterprise Value		77	88
(-) Net Debt		-1	-1
Equity Value		78	89
(/) Outstanding shares		60	60
Fair Price		$1	$1

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$1.39

-1.9%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$0.38 – $6.88

$1.75

+23.0%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$0.14 – $3.75

$0.90

-36.7%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$1.24 – $1.38

$1.39

-1.9%

DCF Analysis

GrowGeneration Corp. (GRWG) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.90

Market Price

$1.42

Upside / Downside

-36.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-15.0%

Target Operating Margin

7.7%

WACC

7.7%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

2.7%

Target CapEx/Rev

10.1%

D&A/Revenue

6.8%

Tax Rate

16.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	165	1.9%	-10.5%	-17	-17	11	(6)	-1	-11	-11
2027	173	4.8%	-5.9%	-10	-10	12	(7)	2	-8	-7
2028	155	-10.0%	-1.4%	-2	-2	10	(8)	-4	5	4
2029	140	-10.0%	3.2%	4	4	9	(8)	-4	9	7
2030	126	-10.0%	7.7%	10	8	8	(8)	-3	12	9
2031	113	-10.0%	7.7%	9	7	8	(8)	-3	10	7
2032	102	-10.0%	7.7%	8	7	7	(8)	-3	8	5
2033	93	-9.2%	7.7%	7	6	6	(8)	-2	7	4
2034	88	-5.1%	7.7%	7	6	6	(8)	-1	5	2
2035	87	-1.1%	7.7%	7	6	6	(9)	-0	3	1

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)21

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)64

PV of Terminal Value31

Enterprise Value53

(–) Net Debt-1

Equity Value54

(÷) Shares Outstanding60

Fair Value per Share$0.90

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	1.7%	4.7%	7.7%	10.7%	13.7%
5.7%	$-0	$0	$2	$3	$4
6.7%	$-0	$0	$1	$2	$3
7.7%	$-0	$0	$1	$2	$2
8.7%	$-0	$0	$1	$1	$2
9.7%	$-0	$0	$1	$1	$2

Current price: $1.42. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 24.6% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$1.39

Market Price

$1.42

Upside / Downside

-1.9%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), GrowGeneration Corp. (GRWG) has a fair value of $1.39 based on 6 comparable companies in the Specialty Retail industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Specialty Retail

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
GrowGeneration Corp.GRWG	85	0.5x	0.4x
Duluth Holdings Inc.DLTH	124	0.5x	0.4x
Full House Resorts, Inc.FLL	107	2.0x	2.1x
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc.RRGB	67	0.5x	0.4x
Purple Innovation, Inc.PRPL	56	0.5x	0.5x
Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings, Inc.SPWH	55	0.4x	0.4x
QVC Group Inc.QVCGA	3	0.5x	0.4x
Industry Median		0.5x	0.4x
(*) Revenue		162	207
= Enterprise Value		77	88
(-) Net Debt		-1	-1
Equity Value		78	89
(/) Outstanding shares		60	60
Fair Price		$1	$1

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$1.39

-1.9%