Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc.

RRGB

Consumer CyclicalRestaurantsNASDAQ

$3.59

Market Cap: $65.11M

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (RRGB) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 15, 2026 22:31

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$2.59 – $338.15	$41.93	+1030.2%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$2.10 – $337.95	$48.24	+1200.2%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	-$0.36 – $48.18	$14.37	+287.4%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (RRGB) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$48.24

Market Price

$3.59

Upside / Downside

+1243.7%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from 0.2% to a target of 7.7% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 6.2%, Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (RRGB) has an intrinsic value of $48.24 per share (range: $2.10 – $337.95).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

0.2%

Target Operating Margin

7.7%

WACC

6.2%

Terminal Growth Rate

2.5%

Historical CapEx/Rev

3.0%

Target CapEx/Rev

8.1%

D&A/Revenue

5.4%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	1,153	-4.8%	1.7%	20	16	63	(41)	3	34	33
2027	1,144	-0.7%	3.2%	37	29	62	(46)	-0	45	41
2028	1,468	28.3%	4.7%	69	55	80	(67)	5	63	54
2029	1,483	1.0%	6.2%	92	73	80	(75)	0	78	63
2030	1,498	1.0%	7.7%	115	91	81	(84)	0	89	68
2031	1,519	1.4%	7.7%	117	92	82	(92)	0	82	59
2032	1,544	1.7%	7.7%	119	94	84	(102)	0	75	51
2033	1,575	2.0%	7.7%	121	96	85	(112)	0	69	44
2034	1,612	2.3%	7.7%	124	98	88	(123)	1	62	37
2035	1,655	2.7%	7.7%	128	101	90	(135)	1	55	31

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)482

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 2.5%)1,538

PV of Terminal Value870

Enterprise Value1,352

(–) Net Debt494

Equity Value858

(÷) Shares Outstanding18

Fair Value per Share$48.24

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	1.7%	4.7%	7.7%	10.7%	13.7%
4.2%	$-23	$26	$130	$234	$338
5.2%	$-23	$10	$74	$138	$202
6.2%	$-23	$2	$48	$94	$141
7.2%	$-23	$-2	$33	$69	$105
8.2%	$-24	$-6	$24	$53	$82

Current price: $3.59. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 1.5% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (RRGB) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$41.93

Market Price

$3.59

Upside / Downside

+1068.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

0.2%

Target Operating Margin

7.7%

WACC

6.2%

Terminal Growth Rate

2.5%

Historical CapEx/Rev

3.0%

Target CapEx/Rev

8.1%

D&A/Revenue

5.4%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	1,153	-4.8%	1.7%	20	16	63	(47)	3	29	28
2027	1,144	-0.7%	3.2%	37	29	62	(58)	-0	33	31
2028	1,468	28.3%	4.7%	69	55	80	(89)	5	40	35
2029	1,483	1.0%	6.2%	92	73	80	(106)	0	48	39
2030	1,498	1.0%	7.7%	115	91	81	(122)	0	50	38

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)170

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 2.5%)1,402

PV of Terminal Value1,070

Enterprise Value1,240

(–) Net Debt494

Equity Value746

(÷) Shares Outstanding18

Fair Value per Share$41.93

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	1.7%	4.7%	7.7%	10.7%	13.7%
4.2%	$-28	$20	$126	$232	$338
5.2%	$-28	$3	$68	$134	$199
6.2%	$-28	$-5	$42	$89	$136
7.2%	$-28	$-10	$27	$63	$100
8.2%	$-28	$-13	$17	$47	$77

Current price: $3.59. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 1.5% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$14.37

Market Price

$3.59

Upside / Downside

+300.4%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (RRGB) has a fair value of $14.37 based on 7 comparable companies in the Restaurants industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Restaurants

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc.RRGB	64	0.5x	0.4x
Full House Resorts, Inc.FLL	89	1.9x	2.0x
GrowGeneration Corp.GRWG	66	0.4x	0.3x
Purple Innovation, Inc.PRPL	65	0.5x	0.5x
The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc.STKS	57	0.9x	0.9x
GEN Restaurant Group, Inc.GENK	53	1.1x	1.3x
QVC Group Inc.QVCGA	20	0.5x	0.4x
Chanson International HoldingCHSN	3	0.2x	—
Industry Median		0.5x	0.7x
(*) Revenue		1,210	1,246
= Enterprise Value		633	866
(-) Net Debt		494	494
Equity Value		139	372
(/) Outstanding shares		18	18
Fair Price		$8	$21

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$14.37

+300.4%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$2.59 – $338.15

$41.93

+1030.2%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$2.10 – $337.95

$48.24

+1200.2%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

-$0.36 – $48.18

$14.37

+287.4%

DCF Analysis

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (RRGB) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$48.24

Market Price

$3.59

Upside / Downside

+1243.7%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

0.2%

Target Operating Margin

7.7%

WACC

6.2%

Terminal Growth Rate

2.5%

Historical CapEx/Rev

3.0%

Target CapEx/Rev

8.1%

D&A/Revenue

5.4%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	1,153	-4.8%	1.7%	20	16	63	(41)	3	34	33
2027	1,144	-0.7%	3.2%	37	29	62	(46)	-0	45	41
2028	1,468	28.3%	4.7%	69	55	80	(67)	5	63	54
2029	1,483	1.0%	6.2%	92	73	80	(75)	0	78	63
2030	1,498	1.0%	7.7%	115	91	81	(84)	0	89	68
2031	1,519	1.4%	7.7%	117	92	82	(92)	0	82	59
2032	1,544	1.7%	7.7%	119	94	84	(102)	0	75	51
2033	1,575	2.0%	7.7%	121	96	85	(112)	0	69	44
2034	1,612	2.3%	7.7%	124	98	88	(123)	1	62	37
2035	1,655	2.7%	7.7%	128	101	90	(135)	1	55	31

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)482

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 2.5%)1,538

PV of Terminal Value870

Enterprise Value1,352

(–) Net Debt494

Equity Value858

(÷) Shares Outstanding18

Fair Value per Share$48.24

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	1.7%	4.7%	7.7%	10.7%	13.7%
4.2%	$-23	$26	$130	$234	$338
5.2%	$-23	$10	$74	$138	$202
6.2%	$-23	$2	$48	$94	$141
7.2%	$-23	$-2	$33	$69	$105
8.2%	$-24	$-6	$24	$53	$82

Current price: $3.59. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 1.5% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$14.37

Market Price

$3.59

Upside / Downside

+300.4%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (RRGB) has a fair value of $14.37 based on 7 comparable companies in the Restaurants industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Restaurants

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc.RRGB	64	0.5x	0.4x
Full House Resorts, Inc.FLL	89	1.9x	2.0x
GrowGeneration Corp.GRWG	66	0.4x	0.3x
Purple Innovation, Inc.PRPL	65	0.5x	0.5x
The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc.STKS	57	0.9x	0.9x
GEN Restaurant Group, Inc.GENK	53	1.1x	1.3x
QVC Group Inc.QVCGA	20	0.5x	0.4x
Chanson International HoldingCHSN	3	0.2x	—
Industry Median		0.5x	0.7x
(*) Revenue		1,210	1,246
= Enterprise Value		633	866
(-) Net Debt		494	494
Equity Value		139	372
(/) Outstanding shares		18	18
Fair Price		$8	$21

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$14.37

+300.4%