Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Ford Motor Company's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 0.1% to 3.9% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 126, DPO 61, DIO 35). At a 5.0% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (89% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 13.9x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $10.27 per share, suggesting F is fairly valued by 11.3% at the current price of $11.58.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 3,898 | 3,979 | 4,144 | 4,059 | 4,216 | 4,321 |
| (−) Net Interest | 1,562 | 1,595 | 1,661 | 1,627 | 1,690 | 1,732 |
| (+) D&A | 7,766 | 8,244 | 8,631 | 8,817 | 8,875 | 9,097 |
| EBITDA | 13,225 | 13,818 | 14,436 | 14,502 | 14,781 | 15,151 |
| (−) Tax | 112 | 115 | 120 | 117 | 122 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 8,620 | 8,800 | 9,165 | 8,977 | 9,324 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | -1,226 | 1,097 | 2,235 | -1,150 | 2,126 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 5,718 | 3,806 | 2,916 | 6,558 | 3,209 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 13.9x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 210,896 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 5.00% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 5,581 | 3,537 | 2,581 | 5,529 | 2,576 | 165,242 |
| Enterprise Value | 185,046 | |||||
| Projection Period | 19,804 | 10.7% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 165,242 | 89.3% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 144,217 | |||||
| Equity Value | 40,829 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 3979M | |||||
| Fair Price | $10 | -11.4% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 9.9x | 11.9x | 13.9x | 15.9x | 17.9x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0% | $2 | $8 | $15 | $21 | $28 |
| 4.0% | $0 | $6 | $12 | $19 | $25 |
| 5.0% | $0 | $4 | $10 | $16 | $22 |
| 6.0% | $0 | $3 | $8 | $14 | $20 |
| 7.0% | $0 | $1 | $6 | $12 | $17 |
Current price: $11.58. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.