Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Ford Motor Company's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 3.4% to 5.2% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 126, DPO 64, DIO 37). At a 5.0% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (90% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 14.2x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $12.15 per share, suggesting F is fairly valued by 1.5% at the current price of $12.32.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 4,171 | 4,137 | 4,313 | 4,303 | 4,526 | 4,639 |
| (−) Net Interest | 1,599 | 1,586 | 1,653 | 1,649 | 1,735 | 1,778 |
| (+) D&A | 7,766 | 8,300 | 8,692 | 8,885 | 8,984 | 9,209 |
| EBITDA | 13,535 | 14,023 | 14,659 | 14,837 | 15,245 | 15,626 |
| (−) Tax | 120 | 119 | 124 | 124 | 131 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 8,898 | 8,827 | 9,202 | 9,180 | 9,655 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 570 | -439 | 2,302 | -137 | 2,916 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 3,947 | 5,516 | 3,030 | 5,670 | 2,543 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 14.2x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 222,203 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 5.00% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 3,852 | 5,127 | 2,682 | 4,780 | 2,042 | 174,102 |
| Enterprise Value | 192,584 | |||||
| Projection Period | 18,483 | 9.6% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 174,102 | 90.4% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 144,217 | |||||
| Equity Value | 48,367 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 3979M | |||||
| Fair Price | $12 | -1.4% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 10.2x | 12.2x | 14.2x | 16.2x | 18.2x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0% | $3 | $10 | $17 | $24 | $30 |
| 4.0% | $1 | $8 | $14 | $21 | $27 |
| 5.0% | $0 | $6 | $12 | $18 | $24 |
| 6.0% | $0 | $4 | $10 | $16 | $22 |
| 7.0% | $0 | $2 | $8 | $14 | $19 |
Current price: $12.32. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Ford Motor Company's cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 3.4% to 3.9% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 126, DPO 64, DIO 37). At a 5.0% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (87% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 14.2x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $13.32 per share, suggesting F is fairly valued by 8.1% at the current price of $12.32.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 4,171 | 4,137 | 4,313 | 4,303 | 4,526 | 4,860 | 5,176 | 5,467 | 5,727 | 5,949 | 6,098 |
| (−) Net Interest | 1,599 | 1,586 | 1,653 | 1,649 | 1,735 | 1,863 | 1,984 | 2,096 | 2,195 | 2,280 | 2,337 |
| (+) D&A | 7,766 | 8,300 | 8,692 | 8,885 | 8,984 | 9,152 | 9,446 | 9,890 | 10,382 | 10,990 | 11,264 |
| EBITDA | 13,535 | 14,023 | 14,659 | 14,837 | 15,245 | 15,875 | 16,606 | 17,453 | 18,304 | 19,219 | 19,700 |
| (−) Tax | 120 | 119 | 124 | 124 | 131 | 140 | 149 | 158 | 165 | 172 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 8,898 | 8,827 | 9,202 | 9,180 | 9,655 | 10,368 | 11,042 | 11,664 | 12,218 | 12,692 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 570 | -439 | 2,302 | -137 | 2,916 | 4,371 | 4,136 | 3,812 | 3,400 | 2,905 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 3,947 | 5,516 | 3,030 | 5,670 | 2,543 | 996 | 1,278 | 1,819 | 2,521 | 3,451 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 14.2x | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | 280,128 | ||||||||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 5.00% | ||||||||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 3,852 | 5,127 | 2,682 | 4,780 | 2,042 | 762 | 931 | 1,261 | 1,665 | 2,171 | 171,975 |
| Enterprise Value | 197,247 | ||||||||||
| Projection Period | 25,272 | 12.8% | |||||||||
| Terminal Value | 171,975 | 87.2% | |||||||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 144,217 | ||||||||||
| Equity Value | 53,030 | ||||||||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 3979M | ||||||||||
| Fair Price | $13 | +8.1% | |||||||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 10.2x | 12.2x | 14.2x | 16.2x | 18.2x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0% | $8 | $16 | $23 | $30 | $38 |
| 4.0% | $5 | $11 | $18 | $25 | $31 |
| 5.0% | $1 | $7 | $13 | $19 | $25 |
| 6.0% | $0 | $4 | $9 | $15 | $20 |
| 7.0% | $0 | $0 | $5 | $10 | $16 |
Current price: $12.32. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Ford Motor Company (F) has a fair value of $118.51 based on 5 comparable companies in the Auto - Manufacturers industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing EV/Revenue | Forward EV/Revenue | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ford Motor CompanyF | 49,041 | 1.0x | 1.0x |
| Ross Stores, Inc. | 72,607 | 3.2x | 3.2x |
| General Motors Company | 71,051 | 1.0x | 1.0x |
| AutoZone, Inc. | 57,606 | 3.7x | 3.4x |
| D.R. Horton, Inc. | 41,865 | 1.3x | 1.2x |
| Copart, Inc. | 32,695 | 6.5x | 7.1x |
| Industry Median | 3.2x | 3.2x | |
| (*) Revenue | 187,267 | 193,551 | |
| = Enterprise Value | 602,737 | 628,793 | |
| (-) Net Debt | 144,217 | 144,217 | |
| Equity Value | 458,520 | 484,576 | |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 3,979 | 3,979 | |
| Fair Price | $115 | $122 | |
Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.