Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Expand Energy Corporation's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 8.2% to 1.4% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 56, DPO 57, DIO 60). At a 7.2% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (83% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.4x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $164.66 per share, suggesting EXE is undervalued by 46.3% at the current price of $112.52.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 2,428 | 2,399 | 2,435 | 2,813 | 2,853 | 2,924 |
| (−) Net Interest | 222 | 220 | 223 | 257 | 261 | 268 |
| (+) D&A | 1,736 | 2,143 | 2,325 | 2,515 | 2,845 | 2,916 |
| EBITDA | 4,387 | 4,761 | 4,983 | 5,585 | 5,959 | 6,108 |
| (−) Tax | 35 | 35 | 35 | 41 | 41 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 2,769 | 2,736 | 2,776 | 3,208 | 3,253 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 1,140 | -24 | 29 | 309 | 33 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 442 | 2,015 | 2,142 | 2,027 | 2,632 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 8.4x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 51,551 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.21% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 427 | 1,815 | 1,800 | 1,589 | 1,924 | 36,403 |
| Enterprise Value | 43,958 | |||||
| Projection Period | 7,555 | 17.2% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 36,403 | 82.8% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 4,364 | |||||
| Equity Value | 39,594 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 240M | |||||
| Fair Price | $165 | +46.4% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 4.4x | 6.4x | 8.4x | 10.4x | 12.4x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.2% | $102 | $142 | $181 | $221 | $260 |
| 6.2% | $98 | $135 | $173 | $210 | $248 |
| 7.2% | $93 | $129 | $165 | $201 | $236 |
| 8.2% | $88 | $123 | $157 | $191 | $225 |
| 9.2% | $84 | $117 | $150 | $182 | $215 |
Current price: $112.52. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.