Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 10.5% plus 2.8% dividend yield, Expand Energy Corporation has a fair value of $94.96 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $9.02. The current PEG ratio is 1.18.
PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.
PEG tends to undervalue slow growers — consider dividend yield and asset value instead.
| EPS Growth RateForward | 7.7% |
| Dividend Yield | +2.8% |
| Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%) | 10.5% |
| Fair P/E | 10.5x |
| NTM EPS (FY2026) | $9.02 |
| Fair Value | $94.96 |
| Period | EPS Est. | Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (actual) | $7.57 | — | — |
| FY2026E | $9.02 | +19.2% | 9 |
| FY2027E | $9.06 | +0.4% | 8 |
| FY2028E | $8.33 | -8.1% | 4 |
| FY2029E | $10.73 | +28.9% | 3 |
| FY2030E | $10.96 | +2.1% | 3 |
5Y Forward EPS CAGR: 7.7%
| Year | Net Income | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $6.3B | $53.66 | — |
| FY2022 | $4.9B | $33.36 | -37.8% |
| FY2023 | $2.4B | $16.92 | -49.3% |
| FY2024 | $-714.0M | $-4.55 | -126.9% |
| FY2025 | $1.8B | $7.57 | — |
4Y Historical EPS CAGR: -38.7%
The PEG Fair Value uses the Price/Earnings-to-Growth framework. A stock is fairly valued when its P/E ratio equals its earnings growth rate (PEG = 1.0). This model adds dividend yield to the growth rate per the original PEGY formula.
Growth rate priority: analyst consensus forward EPS CAGR (when ≥ 3 analysts cover the stock), falling back to historical EPS CAGR. Using EPS rather than net income avoids distortion from share buybacks. The growth rate is clamped between 8% and 25% — below 8% would undervalue stable earners, while above 25% would overvalue unsustainable spikes.