Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project EOG Resources, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 5.7% to 0.2% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 41, DPO 166, DIO 66). At a 7.2% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (81% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 12.3x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $403.08 per share, suggesting EOG is undervalued by 172.8% at the current price of $147.73.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 12,034 | 12,633 | 13,381 | 13,861 | 13,888 | 14,235 |
| (−) Net Interest | 177 | 186 | 197 | 204 | 204 | 210 |
| (+) D&A | 5,504 | 5,856 | 6,033 | 6,042 | 6,060 | 6,211 |
| EBITDA | 17,716 | 18,674 | 19,610 | 20,108 | 20,152 | 20,656 |
| (−) Tax | 2,604 | 2,733 | 2,895 | 2,999 | 3,005 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 5,606 | 5,885 | 6,234 | 6,458 | 6,470 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 304 | 54 | 68 | 44 | 2 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 9,202 | 10,002 | 10,414 | 10,608 | 10,675 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 12.3x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 254,270 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.21% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 8,888 | 9,010 | 8,751 | 8,314 | 7,804 | 179,538 |
| Enterprise Value | 222,306 | |||||
| Projection Period | 42,767 | 19.2% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 179,538 | 80.8% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 5,012 | |||||
| Equity Value | 217,294 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 539M | |||||
| Fair Price | $403 | +172.8% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 8.3x | 10.3x | 12.3x | 14.3x | 16.3x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.2% | $321 | $380 | $440 | $499 | $559 |
| 6.2% | $308 | $364 | $421 | $478 | $534 |
| 7.2% | $295 | $349 | $403 | $457 | $511 |
| 8.2% | $283 | $335 | $386 | $438 | $489 |
| 9.2% | $272 | $321 | $370 | $420 | $469 |
Current price: $147.73. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.