Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project CRH plc's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 24.7% to 6.5% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 69, DPO 50, DIO 75). At a 7.8% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (90% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 17.2x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $150.65 per share, suggesting CRH is undervalued by 44.6% at the current price of $104.17.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 4,163 | 4,377 | 4,687 | 5,082 | 5,415 | 5,550 |
| (−) Net Interest | 586 | 616 | 659 | 715 | 762 | 781 |
| (+) D&A | 1,847 | 2,045 | 2,258 | 2,459 | 2,537 | 2,600 |
| EBITDA | 6,596 | 7,038 | 7,604 | 8,256 | 8,714 | 8,932 |
| (−) Tax | 929 | 977 | 1,046 | 1,134 | 1,208 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 2,359 | 2,480 | 2,656 | 2,880 | 3,068 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 2,188 | 479 | 693 | 883 | 744 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 1,120 | 3,102 | 3,210 | 3,359 | 3,693 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 17.2x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 153,980 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.78% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 1,078 | 2,772 | 2,662 | 2,584 | 2,637 | 105,885 |
| Enterprise Value | 117,619 | |||||
| Projection Period | 11,734 | 10.0% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 105,885 | 90.0% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 15,609 | |||||
| Equity Value | 102,010 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 677M | |||||
| Fair Price | $151 | +44.6% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 13.2x | 15.2x | 17.2x | 19.2x | 21.2x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.8% | $127 | $147 | $167 | $187 | $207 |
| 6.8% | $121 | $140 | $159 | $178 | $197 |
| 7.8% | $114 | $133 | $151 | $169 | $187 |
| 8.8% | $109 | $126 | $143 | $160 | $178 |
| 9.8% | $103 | $120 | $136 | $153 | $169 |
Current price: $104.17. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.