Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Camden Property Trust's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -0.4% to 5.7% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 3, DPO 144, DIO 60). At a 7.3% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (79% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 12.5x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $125.82 per share, suggesting CPT is undervalued by 28.3% at the current price of $98.11.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 761 | 782 | 776 | 851 | 899 | 922 |
| (−) Net Interest | 133 | 136 | 135 | 148 | 157 | 161 |
| (+) D&A | 425 | 432 | 439 | 452 | 478 | 490 |
| EBITDA | 1,319 | 1,351 | 1,350 | 1,451 | 1,534 | 1,572 |
| (−) Tax | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 468 | 481 | 477 | 523 | 553 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 114 | -3 | 1 | -12 | -8 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 730 | 867 | 865 | 933 | 981 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 12.5x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 19,682 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.26% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 705 | 780 | 726 | 730 | 715 | 13,861 |
| Enterprise Value | 17,517 | |||||
| Projection Period | 3,656 | 20.9% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 13,861 | 79.1% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 3,876 | |||||
| Equity Value | 13,642 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 108M | |||||
| Fair Price | $126 | +28.2% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 8.5x | 10.5x | 12.5x | 14.5x | 16.5x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.3% | $95 | $118 | $140 | $163 | $185 |
| 6.3% | $90 | $111 | $133 | $154 | $176 |
| 7.3% | $85 | $105 | $126 | $146 | $167 |
| 8.3% | $80 | $100 | $119 | $139 | $158 |
| 9.3% | $76 | $94 | $113 | $132 | $150 |
Current price: $98.11. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.