Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Corpay, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 16.6% to 12.4% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 235, DPO 694, DIO 60). At a 7.9% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (75% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 10.7x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $596.10 per share, suggesting CPAY is undervalued by 102.1% at the current price of $295.00.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 2,303 | 2,541 | 2,790 | 3,137 | 3,527 | 3,615 |
| (−) Net Interest | 387 | 427 | 469 | 527 | 593 | 608 |
| (+) D&A | 159 | 181 | 201 | 224 | 250 | 257 |
| EBITDA | 2,848 | 3,149 | 3,460 | 3,889 | 4,370 | 4,480 |
| (−) Tax | 614 | 678 | 744 | 837 | 941 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 225 | 248 | 272 | 306 | 344 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | -1,155 | 132 | 138 | 192 | 216 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 3,164 | 2,091 | 2,305 | 2,553 | 2,869 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 10.7x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 47,888 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.93% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 3,046 | 1,865 | 1,904 | 1,955 | 2,035 | 32,690 |
| Enterprise Value | 43,495 | |||||
| Projection Period | 10,805 | 24.8% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 32,690 | 75.2% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 1,124 | |||||
| Equity Value | 42,371 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 71M | |||||
| Fair Price | $596 | +102.1% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 6.7x | 8.7x | 10.7x | 12.7x | 14.7x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.9% | $459 | $553 | $648 | $743 | $837 |
| 6.9% | $441 | $531 | $621 | $712 | $802 |
| 7.9% | $424 | $510 | $596 | $682 | $768 |
| 8.9% | $408 | $490 | $572 | $654 | $737 |
| 9.9% | $392 | $471 | $549 | $628 | $707 |
Current price: $295.00. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.