Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Church & Dwight Co., Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -1.0% to 3.9% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 32, DPO 77, DIO 67). At a 6.7% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (78% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 12.6x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $67.34 per share, suggesting CHD is overvalued by 28.0% at the current price of $93.59.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 1,060 | 1,099 | 1,139 | 1,186 | 1,232 | 1,263 |
| (−) Net Interest | 95 | 98 | 102 | 106 | 110 | 113 |
| (+) D&A | 165 | 176 | 177 | 170 | 174 | 178 |
| EBITDA | 1,320 | 1,374 | 1,418 | 1,462 | 1,516 | 1,554 |
| (−) Tax | 229 | 238 | 247 | 257 | 267 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 176 | 183 | 189 | 197 | 205 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 48 | 16 | 17 | 20 | 19 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 865 | 937 | 965 | 988 | 1,025 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 12.6x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 19,590 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.68% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 838 | 850 | 821 | 788 | 766 | 14,182 |
| Enterprise Value | 18,246 | |||||
| Projection Period | 4,064 | 22.3% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 14,182 | 77.7% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 1,796 | |||||
| Equity Value | 16,450 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 244M | |||||
| Fair Price | $67 | -28.1% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 8.6x | 10.6x | 12.6x | 14.6x | 16.6x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.7% | $54 | $64 | $74 | $84 | $94 |
| 5.7% | $51 | $61 | $71 | $80 | $90 |
| 6.7% | $49 | $58 | $67 | $77 | $86 |
| 7.7% | $47 | $56 | $64 | $73 | $82 |
| 8.7% | $45 | $53 | $61 | $70 | $78 |
Current price: $93.59. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.