Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Bunge Global S.A.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 32.7% to 4.4% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 18, DPO 25, DIO 54). At a 5.5% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (84% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 12.9x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $290.13 per share, suggesting BG is undervalued by 130.6% at the current price of $125.83.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 2,525 | 2,607 | 2,613 | 2,729 | 2,849 | 2,920 |
| (−) Net Interest | 683 | 705 | 706 | 738 | 770 | 789 |
| (+) D&A | 1,035 | 1,270 | 1,484 | 1,585 | 1,649 | 1,691 |
| EBITDA | 4,243 | 4,582 | 4,803 | 5,051 | 5,269 | 5,401 |
| (−) Tax | 531 | 548 | 549 | 574 | 599 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 1,573 | 1,624 | 1,628 | 1,699 | 1,775 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | -621 | 376 | 26 | 529 | 553 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 2,760 | 2,034 | 2,600 | 2,248 | 2,342 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 12.9x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 69,937 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 5.53% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 2,687 | 1,876 | 2,272 | 1,862 | 1,838 | 53,426 |
| Enterprise Value | 63,961 | |||||
| Projection Period | 10,535 | 16.5% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 53,426 | 83.5% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 15,817 | |||||
| Equity Value | 48,144 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 166M | |||||
| Fair Price | $290 | +130.5% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 9.0x | 11.0x | 13.0x | 15.0x | 17.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5% | $216 | $271 | $325 | $380 | $435 |
| 4.5% | $203 | $255 | $307 | $359 | $412 |
| 5.5% | $191 | $240 | $290 | $340 | $390 |
| 6.5% | $179 | $227 | $274 | $321 | $369 |
| 7.5% | $168 | $213 | $259 | $304 | $349 |
Current price: $125.83. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.