Business First Bancshares, Inc.

BFST

Financial ServicesBanks - RegionalNASDAQ

$27.22

Market Cap: $889.50M

Business First Bancshares, Inc. (BFST) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 28, 2026 22:22

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$73.71 – $184.56	$105.61	+284.0%
Growth Exit 10Y	$118.64 – $301.36	$171.41	+523.3%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$55.12 – $128.37	$88.70	+222.5%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$94.25 – $213.03	$144.90	+426.9%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$34.77 – $37.97	$36.56	+32.9%
EV/EBITDA	$29.34 – $42.42	$29.73	+8.1%
EV/Revenue	$40.74 – $50.65	$38.32	+39.4%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$32.75 – $32.75	$32.75	+19.1%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$46.14 – $65.08	$54.12	+96.8%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$10.18 – $26.03	$15.17	-44.8%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$105.61

Market Price

$27.22

Upside / Downside

+288.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Business First Bancshares, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -27.6% to 26.0% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 31, DPO 19, DIO 60). At a 9.6% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (78% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 6 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $105.61 per share, suggesting BFST is undervalued by 288.0% at the current price of $27.22.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

9.56%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	51	55	69	87	109	112
(−) Net Interest	101	107	135	171	215	220
(+) D&A	5	5	5	5	6	6
EBITDA	157	168	210	262	331	339

(−) Tax	11	11	14	18	23	23
(−) CapEx	6	7	8	10	13	13
(−) ΔWC	10	3	12	15	19	20
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	131	147	175	218	276	283

Terminal Value						4,006
WACC / Discount Rate	9.6%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	125	128	139	159	183	2,538

Enterprise Value	3,272
Projection Period	734	22.4%
Terminal Value	2,538	77.6%

(−) Current Net Debt	140

Equity Value	3,132
(/) Outstanding Shares	30

Fair Price	$105.61

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
7.6%	$131	$140	$152	$167	$185
8.6%	$110	$117	$125	$134	$146
9.6%	$95	$100	$106	$112	$120
10.6%	$83	$87	$91	$96	$101
11.6%	$74	$77	$80	$83	$87

Current price: $27.22. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$171.41

Market Price

$27.22

Upside / Downside

+529.7%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Business First Bancshares, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -27.6% to 6.8% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 31, DPO 19, DIO 60). At a 9.6% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (64% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 11 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $171.41 per share, suggesting BFST is undervalued by 529.7% at the current price of $27.22.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

9.56%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	51	55	69	87	109	134	158	181	201	214	220
(−) Net Interest	101	107	135	171	215	263	311	356	394	421	431
(+) D&A	5	5	5	5	6	9	11	13	16	19	19
EBITDA	157	168	210	262	331	405	480	550	610	654	670

(−) Tax	11	11	14	18	23	28	33	38	42	44	46
(−) CapEx	6	7	8	10	13	16	19	22	24	26	26
(−) ΔWC	10	3	12	15	19	21	21	20	17	12	12
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	131	147	175	218	276	341	407	472	528	572	586

Terminal Value											8,311
WACC / Discount Rate	9.6%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	125	128	139	159	183	206	225	238	243	240	3,337

Enterprise Value	5,224
Projection Period	1,887	36.1%
Terminal Value	3,337	63.9%

(−) Current Net Debt	140

Equity Value	5,084
(/) Outstanding Shares	30

Fair Price	$171.41

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
7.6%	$224	$238	$255	$276	$301
8.6%	$186	$195	$206	$219	$234
9.6%	$157	$164	$171	$180	$190
10.6%	$136	$140	$146	$152	$158
11.6%	$119	$122	$126	$130	$135

Current price: $27.22. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$88.70

Market Price

$27.22

Upside / Downside

+225.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Business First Bancshares, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -27.6% to 26.0% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 31, DPO 19, DIO 60). At a 9.6% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (74% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.5x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $88.70 per share, suggesting BFST is undervalued by 225.9% at the current price of $27.22.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

9.56%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

9.48x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	51	55	69	87	109	112
(−) Net Interest	101	107	135	171	215	220
(+) D&A	5	5	5	5	6	6
EBITDA	157	168	210	262	331	339

(−) Tax	11	11	14	18	23	—
(−) CapEx	6	7	8	10	13	—
(−) ΔWC	10	3	12	15	19	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	131	147	175	218	276	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						9.5x
Terminal Value						3,214
WACC / Discount Rate	9.56%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	125	128	139	159	183	2,037

Enterprise Value	2,771
Projection Period	734	26.5%
Terminal Value	2,037	73.5%

(−) Current Net Debt	140
Equity Value	2,630
(÷) Outstanding Shares	30M
Fair Price	$89	+225.9%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	5.5x	7.5x	9.5x	11.5x	13.5x
7.6%	$65	$81	$97	$112	$128
8.6%	$62	$77	$93	$108	$123
9.6%	$60	$74	$89	$103	$118
10.6%	$57	$71	$85	$99	$113
11.6%	$55	$68	$82	$95	$108

Current price: $27.22. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$144.90

Market Price

$27.22

Upside / Downside

+432.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Business First Bancshares, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -27.6% to 6.8% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 31, DPO 19, DIO 60). At a 9.6% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (57% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.5x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $144.90 per share, suggesting BFST is undervalued by 432.3% at the current price of $27.22.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

9.56%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

9.48x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	51	55	69	87	109	134	158	181	201	214	220
(−) Net Interest	101	107	135	171	215	263	311	356	394	421	431
(+) D&A	5	5	5	5	6	9	11	13	16	19	19
EBITDA	157	168	210	262	331	405	480	550	610	654	670

(−) Tax	11	11	14	18	23	28	33	38	42	44	—
(−) CapEx	6	7	8	10	13	16	19	22	24	26	—
(−) ΔWC	10	3	12	15	19	21	21	20	17	12	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	131	147	175	218	276	341	407	472	528	572	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											9.5x
Terminal Value											6,352
WACC / Discount Rate	9.56%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	125	128	139	159	183	206	225	238	243	240	2,550

Enterprise Value	4,437
Projection Period	1,887	42.5%
Terminal Value	2,550	57.5%

(−) Current Net Debt	140
Equity Value	4,297
(÷) Outstanding Shares	30M
Fair Price	$145	+432.3%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	5.5x	7.5x	9.5x	11.5x	13.5x
7.6%	$126	$148	$169	$191	$213
8.6%	$117	$137	$157	$176	$196
9.6%	$109	$127	$145	$163	$181
10.6%	$101	$118	$134	$151	$167
11.6%	$94	$109	$125	$140	$155

Current price: $27.22. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$36.56

Market Price

$27.22

Upside / Downside

+34.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), Business First Bancshares, Inc. (BFST) has a fair value of $36.56 based on 9 comparable companies in the Banks - Regional industry.

P/E Valuation — Banks - Regional

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
Business First Bancshares, Inc.BFST	807	9.8x	11.1x
Enterprise Financial Services CorpEFSC	2,172	11.2x	13.0x
Northeast BankNBN	1,031	12.8x	28.8x
Amerant Bancorp Inc.AMTB	960	18.1x	37.3x
Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp.MCB	950	13.7x	14.8x
CNB Financial CorporationCCNE	926	12.5x	13.4x
Central Pacific Financial Corp.CPF	915	12.1x	16.5x
HBT Financial, Inc.HBT	900	11.7x	12.7x
Mercantile Bank CorporationMBWM	898	9.5x	10.1x
HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc.HTB	781	12.5x	15.1x
Industry Median		12.5x	14.8x
(*) Profit after tax		88	73
Equity Value		1,094	1,074
(/) Outstanding shares		30	30
Fair Price		$37	$36

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$36.56

+34.3%

Fair Value

$29.73

Market Price

$27.22

Upside / Downside

+9.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), Business First Bancshares, Inc. (BFST) has a fair value of $29.73 based on 9 comparable companies in the Banks - Regional industry.

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Banks - Regional

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
Business First Bancshares, Inc.BFST	807	8.0x	16.4x
Enterprise Financial Services CorpEFSC	2,172	8.5x	13.3x
Northeast BankNBN	1,031	7.4x	25.3x
Amerant Bancorp Inc.AMTB	960	21.6x	43.3x
Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp.MCB	950	6.3x	13.8x
CNB Financial CorporationCCNE	926	12.6x	23.8x
Central Pacific Financial Corp.CPF	915	9.5x	14.4x
HBT Financial, Inc.HBT	900	8.6x	11.8x
Mercantile Bank CorporationMBWM	898	11.7x	19.8x
HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc.HTB	781	10.2x	15.9x
Industry Median		9.5x	15.9x
(*) EBITDA		119	58
= Enterprise Value		1,129	915
(-) Net Debt		140	140
Equity Value		989	775
(/) Outstanding shares		30	30
Fair Price		$33	$26

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$29.73

+9.2%

Fair Value

$38.32

Market Price

$27.22

Upside / Downside

+40.8%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Business First Bancshares, Inc. (BFST) has a fair value of $38.32 based on 9 comparable companies in the Banks - Regional industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Banks - Regional

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Business First Bancshares, Inc.BFST	807	1.9x	3.8x
Enterprise Financial Services CorpEFSC	2,172	2.7x	4.2x
Northeast BankNBN	1,031	2.7x	9.3x
Amerant Bancorp Inc.AMTB	960	2.3x	4.7x
Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp.MCB	950	1.2x	2.7x
CNB Financial CorporationCCNE	926	2.9x	5.5x
Central Pacific Financial Corp.CPF	915	2.6x	4.0x
HBT Financial, Inc.HBT	900	3.2x	4.4x
Mercantile Bank CorporationMBWM	898	3.4x	5.7x
HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc.HTB	781	3.2x	5.0x
Industry Median		2.7x	4.7x
(*) Revenue		512	248
= Enterprise Value		1,395	1,158
(-) Net Debt		140	140
Equity Value		1,255	1,018
(/) Outstanding shares		30	30
Fair Price		$42	$34

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$38.32

+40.8%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$32.75

Market Price

$27.22

Upside / Downside

+20.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 10.1% plus 1.9% dividend yield, the company has a fair value of $32.75 based on NTM EPS (FY2027) of $3.25. The current PEG ratio is 0.84.

PEG Ratio

0.84Undervalued

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ (Growth + Yield) = 8.5 ÷ (8.2% + 1.9%) = 0.84

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: StalwartPEG highly applicable

PEG works well for steady growers with predictable earnings.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateForward	8.2%
Dividend Yield	+1.9%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)	10.1%
Fair P/E	10.1x
NTM EPS (FY2027)	$3.25
Fair Value	$32.75

Growth Analysis

Forward GrowthActive

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$2.78	—	—
FY2027E	$3.25	+17.1%	3

2Y Forward EPS CAGR: 8.2%

Historical Growth

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$52.1M	$2.53	—
FY2022	$54.3M	$2.32	-8.3%
FY2023	$71.0M	$2.59	+11.6%
FY2024	$65.1M	$2.26	-12.7%
FY2025	$87.9M	$2.78	+23.0%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 2.4%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$54.12

Market Price

$27.22

Upside / Downside

+98.8%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the Earnings Power Value framework with a WACC of 9.6% and normalized earnings of $166.8M, the company has a fair value of $54.12 per share. The EPV range is $46.14 – $65.08 based on WACC sensitivity (8.1% – 11.1%).

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	167	167	167
(/) WACC	11.1%	9.6%	8.1%
Enterprise Value	1,509	1,745	2,070
(-) Net debt	140	140	140
Equity Value	1,368	1,605	1,930
(/) Outstanding shares	30	30	30
Fair Price	$46.14	$54.12	$65.08

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$15.17

Market Price

$27.22

Upside / Downside

-44.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model with a Cost of Equity of 8.1% and projected dividend growth of 11.3%, the fair value is $15.17 per share. The DDM range is $10.18 – $26.03 based on sensitivity analysis across Cost of Equity and growth rate assumptions.

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$0.57

Dividend Yield

1.87%

Payout Ratio

19.2%

Dividend Coverage

5.22x

FCF Payout Ratio18.3%

DPS CAGR (4Y)5.6%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$0.57	19.2%	+1.1%
2024	$0.56	22.8%	+12.3%
2023	$0.50	17.8%	+5.5%
2022	$0.47	20.0%	+3.7%
2021	$0.46	18.1%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$0.63	11.3%	0.9252	$0.58
2027	$0.70	11.3%	0.8559	$0.60
2028	$0.78	11.3%	0.7919	$0.62
2029	$0.87	11.3%	0.7326	$0.64
2030	$0.97	11.3%	0.6778	$0.66
Terminal Value	$0.99 DPS	2.5%		$12.07

PV of Projected Dividends$3.10

PV of Terminal Value$12.07

Fair Value per Share$15.17

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	9.3%	10.3%	11.3%	12.3%	13.3%
6.1%	$22	$23	$24	$25	$26
7.1%	$17	$18	$19	$19	$20
8.1%	$14	$15	$15	$16	$16
9.1%	$12	$12	$13	$13	$14
10.1%	$10	$11	$11	$11	$12

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Business First Bancshares, Inc. (BFST) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 28, 2026 22:22

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$73.71 – $184.56	$105.61	+284.0%
Growth Exit 10Y	$118.64 – $301.36	$171.41	+523.3%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$55.12 – $128.37	$88.70	+222.5%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$94.25 – $213.03	$144.90	+426.9%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$34.77 – $37.97	$36.56	+32.9%
EV/EBITDA	$29.34 – $42.42	$29.73	+8.1%
EV/Revenue	$40.74 – $50.65	$38.32	+39.4%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$32.75 – $32.75	$32.75	+19.1%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$46.14 – $65.08	$54.12	+96.8%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$10.18 – $26.03	$15.17	-44.8%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$105.61

Market Price

$27.22

Upside / Downside

+288.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

9.56%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	51	55	69	87	109	112
(−) Net Interest	101	107	135	171	215	220
(+) D&A	5	5	5	5	6	6
EBITDA	157	168	210	262	331	339

(−) Tax	11	11	14	18	23	23
(−) CapEx	6	7	8	10	13	13
(−) ΔWC	10	3	12	15	19	20
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	131	147	175	218	276	283

Terminal Value						4,006
WACC / Discount Rate	9.6%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	125	128	139	159	183	2,538

Enterprise Value	3,272
Projection Period	734	22.4%
Terminal Value	2,538	77.6%

(−) Current Net Debt	140

Equity Value	3,132
(/) Outstanding Shares	30

Fair Price	$105.61

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
7.6%	$131	$140	$152	$167	$185
8.6%	$110	$117	$125	$134	$146
9.6%	$95	$100	$106	$112	$120
10.6%	$83	$87	$91	$96	$101
11.6%	$74	$77	$80	$83	$87

Current price: $27.22. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$171.41

Market Price

$27.22

Upside / Downside

+529.7%

Verdict

Undervalued

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

9.56%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	51	55	69	87	109	134	158	181	201	214	220
(−) Net Interest	101	107	135	171	215	263	311	356	394	421	431
(+) D&A	5	5	5	5	6	9	11	13	16	19	19
EBITDA	157	168	210	262	331	405	480	550	610	654	670

(−) Tax	11	11	14	18	23	28	33	38	42	44	46
(−) CapEx	6	7	8	10	13	16	19	22	24	26	26
(−) ΔWC	10	3	12	15	19	21	21	20	17	12	12
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	131	147	175	218	276	341	407	472	528	572	586

Terminal Value											8,311
WACC / Discount Rate	9.6%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	125	128	139	159	183	206	225	238	243	240	3,337

Enterprise Value	5,224
Projection Period	1,887	36.1%
Terminal Value	3,337	63.9%

(−) Current Net Debt	140

Equity Value	5,084
(/) Outstanding Shares	30

Fair Price	$171.41

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
7.6%	$224	$238	$255	$276	$301
8.6%	$186	$195	$206	$219	$234
9.6%	$157	$164	$171	$180	$190
10.6%	$136	$140	$146	$152	$158
11.6%	$119	$122	$126	$130	$135

Current price: $27.22. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$88.70

Market Price

$27.22

Upside / Downside

+225.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Business First Bancshares, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -27.6% to 26.0% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 31, DPO 19, DIO 60). At a 9.6% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (74% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.5x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $88.70 per share, suggesting BFST is undervalued by 225.9% at the current price of $27.22.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

9.56%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

9.48x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	51	55	69	87	109	112
(−) Net Interest	101	107	135	171	215	220
(+) D&A	5	5	5	5	6	6
EBITDA	157	168	210	262	331	339

(−) Tax	11	11	14	18	23	—
(−) CapEx	6	7	8	10	13	—
(−) ΔWC	10	3	12	15	19	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	131	147	175	218	276	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						9.5x
Terminal Value						3,214
WACC / Discount Rate	9.56%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	125	128	139	159	183	2,037

Enterprise Value	2,771
Projection Period	734	26.5%
Terminal Value	2,037	73.5%

(−) Current Net Debt	140
Equity Value	2,630
(÷) Outstanding Shares	30M
Fair Price	$89	+225.9%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	5.5x	7.5x	9.5x	11.5x	13.5x
7.6%	$65	$81	$97	$112	$128
8.6%	$62	$77	$93	$108	$123
9.6%	$60	$74	$89	$103	$118
10.6%	$57	$71	$85	$99	$113
11.6%	$55	$68	$82	$95	$108

Current price: $27.22. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$144.90

Market Price

$27.22

Upside / Downside

+432.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Business First Bancshares, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -27.6% to 6.8% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 31, DPO 19, DIO 60). At a 9.6% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (57% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.5x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $144.90 per share, suggesting BFST is undervalued by 432.3% at the current price of $27.22.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

9.56%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

9.48x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	51	55	69	87	109	134	158	181	201	214	220
(−) Net Interest	101	107	135	171	215	263	311	356	394	421	431
(+) D&A	5	5	5	5	6	9	11	13	16	19	19
EBITDA	157	168	210	262	331	405	480	550	610	654	670

(−) Tax	11	11	14	18	23	28	33	38	42	44	—
(−) CapEx	6	7	8	10	13	16	19	22	24	26	—
(−) ΔWC	10	3	12	15	19	21	21	20	17	12	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	131	147	175	218	276	341	407	472	528	572	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											9.5x
Terminal Value											6,352
WACC / Discount Rate	9.56%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	125	128	139	159	183	206	225	238	243	240	2,550

Enterprise Value	4,437
Projection Period	1,887	42.5%
Terminal Value	2,550	57.5%

(−) Current Net Debt	140
Equity Value	4,297
(÷) Outstanding Shares	30M
Fair Price	$145	+432.3%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	5.5x	7.5x	9.5x	11.5x	13.5x
7.6%	$126	$148	$169	$191	$213
8.6%	$117	$137	$157	$176	$196
9.6%	$109	$127	$145	$163	$181
10.6%	$101	$118	$134	$151	$167
11.6%	$94	$109	$125	$140	$155

Current price: $27.22. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$36.56

Market Price

$27.22

Upside / Downside

+34.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

P/E Valuation — Banks - Regional

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
Business First Bancshares, Inc.BFST	807	9.8x	11.1x
Enterprise Financial Services CorpEFSC	2,172	11.2x	13.0x
Northeast BankNBN	1,031	12.8x	28.8x
Amerant Bancorp Inc.AMTB	960	18.1x	37.3x
Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp.MCB	950	13.7x	14.8x
CNB Financial CorporationCCNE	926	12.5x	13.4x
Central Pacific Financial Corp.CPF	915	12.1x	16.5x
HBT Financial, Inc.HBT	900	11.7x	12.7x
Mercantile Bank CorporationMBWM	898	9.5x	10.1x
HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc.HTB	781	12.5x	15.1x
Industry Median		12.5x	14.8x
(*) Profit after tax		88	73
Equity Value		1,094	1,074
(/) Outstanding shares		30	30
Fair Price		$37	$36

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$36.56

+34.3%

Fair Value

$29.73

Market Price

$27.22

Upside / Downside

+9.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Banks - Regional

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
Business First Bancshares, Inc.BFST	807	8.0x	16.4x
Enterprise Financial Services CorpEFSC	2,172	8.5x	13.3x
Northeast BankNBN	1,031	7.4x	25.3x
Amerant Bancorp Inc.AMTB	960	21.6x	43.3x
Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp.MCB	950	6.3x	13.8x
CNB Financial CorporationCCNE	926	12.6x	23.8x
Central Pacific Financial Corp.CPF	915	9.5x	14.4x
HBT Financial, Inc.HBT	900	8.6x	11.8x
Mercantile Bank CorporationMBWM	898	11.7x	19.8x
HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc.HTB	781	10.2x	15.9x
Industry Median		9.5x	15.9x
(*) EBITDA		119	58
= Enterprise Value		1,129	915
(-) Net Debt		140	140
Equity Value		989	775
(/) Outstanding shares		30	30
Fair Price		$33	$26

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$29.73

+9.2%

Fair Value

$38.32

Market Price

$27.22

Upside / Downside

+40.8%

Verdict

Undervalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Banks - Regional

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Business First Bancshares, Inc.BFST	807	1.9x	3.8x
Enterprise Financial Services CorpEFSC	2,172	2.7x	4.2x
Northeast BankNBN	1,031	2.7x	9.3x
Amerant Bancorp Inc.AMTB	960	2.3x	4.7x
Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp.MCB	950	1.2x	2.7x
CNB Financial CorporationCCNE	926	2.9x	5.5x
Central Pacific Financial Corp.CPF	915	2.6x	4.0x
HBT Financial, Inc.HBT	900	3.2x	4.4x
Mercantile Bank CorporationMBWM	898	3.4x	5.7x
HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc.HTB	781	3.2x	5.0x
Industry Median		2.7x	4.7x
(*) Revenue		512	248
= Enterprise Value		1,395	1,158
(-) Net Debt		140	140
Equity Value		1,255	1,018
(/) Outstanding shares		30	30
Fair Price		$42	$34

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$38.32

+40.8%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$32.75

Market Price

$27.22

Upside / Downside

+20.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

PEG Ratio

0.84Undervalued

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ (Growth + Yield) = 8.5 ÷ (8.2% + 1.9%) = 0.84

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: StalwartPEG highly applicable

PEG works well for steady growers with predictable earnings.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateForward	8.2%
Dividend Yield	+1.9%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)	10.1%
Fair P/E	10.1x
NTM EPS (FY2027)	$3.25
Fair Value	$32.75

Growth Analysis

Forward GrowthActive

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$2.78	—	—
FY2027E	$3.25	+17.1%	3

2Y Forward EPS CAGR: 8.2%

Historical Growth

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$52.1M	$2.53	—
FY2022	$54.3M	$2.32	-8.3%
FY2023	$71.0M	$2.59	+11.6%
FY2024	$65.1M	$2.26	-12.7%
FY2025	$87.9M	$2.78	+23.0%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 2.4%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$54.12

Market Price

$27.22

Upside / Downside

+98.8%

Verdict

Undervalued

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	167	167	167
(/) WACC	11.1%	9.6%	8.1%
Enterprise Value	1,509	1,745	2,070
(-) Net debt	140	140	140
Equity Value	1,368	1,605	1,930
(/) Outstanding shares	30	30	30
Fair Price	$46.14	$54.12	$65.08

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$15.17

Market Price

$27.22

Upside / Downside

-44.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$0.57

Dividend Yield

1.87%

Payout Ratio

19.2%

Dividend Coverage

5.22x

FCF Payout Ratio18.3%

DPS CAGR (4Y)5.6%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$0.57	19.2%	+1.1%
2024	$0.56	22.8%	+12.3%
2023	$0.50	17.8%	+5.5%
2022	$0.47	20.0%	+3.7%
2021	$0.46	18.1%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$0.63	11.3%	0.9252	$0.58
2027	$0.70	11.3%	0.8559	$0.60
2028	$0.78	11.3%	0.7919	$0.62
2029	$0.87	11.3%	0.7326	$0.64
2030	$0.97	11.3%	0.6778	$0.66
Terminal Value	$0.99 DPS	2.5%		$12.07

PV of Projected Dividends$3.10

PV of Terminal Value$12.07

Fair Value per Share$15.17

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	9.3%	10.3%	11.3%	12.3%	13.3%
6.1%	$22	$23	$24	$25	$26
7.1%	$17	$18	$19	$19	$20
8.1%	$14	$15	$15	$16	$16
9.1%	$12	$12	$13	$13	$14
10.1%	$10	$11	$11	$11	$12