Enterprise Financial Services Corp

EFSC

Financial ServicesBanks - RegionalNASDAQ

$59.83

Market Cap: $2.19B

Enterprise Financial Services Corp (EFSC) Valuation Summary

Updated May 10, 2026 14:06

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$157.65 – $502.17	$239.90	+301.0%
Growth Exit 10Y	$230.94 – $736.12	$352.19	+488.7%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$129.85 – $275.17	$196.47	+228.4%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$197.77 – $425.76	$295.07	+393.2%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$65.57 – $82.16	$80.89	+35.2%
EV/EBITDA	$66.66 – $90.63	$85.51	+42.9%
EV/Revenue	$59.49 – $72.62	$72.32	+20.9%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$55.01 – $55.01	$55.01	-8.1%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$92.21 – $136.89	$110.48	+84.7%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$17.69 – $47.96	$26.80	-55.2%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$239.90

Market Price

$59.83

Upside / Downside

+301.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Enterprise Financial Services Corp's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -14.9% to 21.3% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 23, DPO 30, DIO 60). At a 8.2% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (80% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 6 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $239.90 per share, suggesting EFSC is undervalued by 301.0% at the current price of $59.83.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

8.23%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	239	248	301	365	443	454
(−) Net Interest	161	168	203	246	299	306
(+) D&A	6	7	8	8	8	9
EBITDA	406	423	512	620	750	769

(−) Tax	54	56	68	83	100	103
(−) CapEx	6	7	8	10	12	12
(−) ΔWC	6	3	14	17	21	21
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	340	357	422	510	618	633

Terminal Value						11,043
WACC / Discount Rate	8.2%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	327	317	346	387	433	7,435

Enterprise Value	9,246
Projection Period	1,810	19.6%
Terminal Value	7,435	80.4%

(−) Current Net Debt	300

Equity Value	8,945
(/) Outstanding Shares	37

Fair Price	$239.90

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
6.2%	$308	$339	$379	$431	$502
7.2%	$251	$271	$295	$325	$363
8.2%	$210	$224	$240	$259	$282
9.2%	$181	$190	$201	$214	$230
10.2%	$158	$165	$173	$182	$193

Current price: $59.83. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$352.19

Market Price

$59.83

Upside / Downside

+488.7%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Enterprise Financial Services Corp's cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -14.9% to 6.0% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 23, DPO 30, DIO 60). At a 8.2% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (67% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 11 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $352.19 per share, suggesting EFSC is undervalued by 488.7% at the current price of $59.83.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

8.23%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	239	248	301	365	443	524	603	677	738	783	802
(−) Net Interest	161	168	203	246	299	353	407	457	498	528	541
(+) D&A	6	7	8	8	8	8	10	12	14	16	16
EBITDA	406	423	512	620	750	886	1,020	1,145	1,250	1,327	1,360

(−) Tax	54	56	68	83	100	118	136	153	167	177	181
(−) CapEx	6	7	8	10	12	14	16	18	20	21	21
(−) ΔWC	6	3	14	17	21	22	21	20	16	12	12
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	340	357	422	510	618	732	847	954	1,047	1,117	1,145

Terminal Value											19,973
WACC / Discount Rate	8.2%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	327	317	346	387	433	474	506	527	534	527	9,054

Enterprise Value	13,433
Projection Period	4,379	32.6%
Terminal Value	9,054	67.4%

(−) Current Net Debt	300

Equity Value	13,132
(/) Outstanding Shares	37

Fair Price	$352.19

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
6.2%	$477	$519	$572	$641	$736
7.2%	$382	$407	$438	$476	$525
8.2%	$316	$333	$352	$375	$403
9.2%	$268	$279	$292	$307	$325
10.2%	$231	$239	$248	$258	$270

Current price: $59.83. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$196.44

Market Price

$59.83

Upside / Downside

+228.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Enterprise Financial Services Corp's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -14.9% to 21.3% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 23, DPO 30, DIO 60). At a 8.2% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (76% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 11.2x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $196.47 per share, suggesting EFSC is undervalued by 228.4% at the current price of $59.83.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

8.23%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

11.23x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	239	248	301	365	443	454
(−) Net Interest	161	168	203	246	299	306
(+) D&A	6	7	8	8	8	9
EBITDA	406	423	512	620	750	769

(−) Tax	54	56	68	83	100	—
(−) CapEx	6	7	8	10	12	—
(−) ΔWC	6	3	14	17	21	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	340	357	422	510	618	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						11.2x
Terminal Value						8,637
WACC / Discount Rate	8.23%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	327	317	346	387	433	5,815

Enterprise Value	7,625
Projection Period	1,810	23.7%
Terminal Value	5,815	76.3%

(−) Current Net Debt	300
Equity Value	7,324
(÷) Outstanding Shares	37M
Fair Price	$196	+228.3%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	7.2x	9.2x	11.2x	13.2x	15.2x
6.2%	$153	$184	$214	$245	$275
7.2%	$147	$176	$205	$234	$263
8.2%	$141	$169	$196	$224	$252
9.2%	$135	$162	$188	$215	$241
10.2%	$130	$155	$181	$206	$231

Current price: $59.83. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$295.03

Market Price

$59.83

Upside / Downside

+393.1%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Enterprise Financial Services Corp's cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -14.9% to 6.0% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 23, DPO 30, DIO 60). At a 8.2% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (61% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 11.2x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $295.07 per share, suggesting EFSC is undervalued by 393.2% at the current price of $59.83.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

8.23%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

11.23x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	239	248	301	365	443	524	603	677	738	783	802
(−) Net Interest	161	168	203	246	299	353	407	457	498	528	541
(+) D&A	6	7	8	8	8	8	10	12	14	16	16
EBITDA	406	423	512	620	750	886	1,020	1,145	1,250	1,327	1,360

(−) Tax	54	56	68	83	100	118	136	153	167	177	—
(−) CapEx	6	7	8	10	12	14	16	18	20	21	—
(−) ΔWC	6	3	14	17	21	22	21	20	16	12	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	340	357	422	510	618	732	847	954	1,047	1,117	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											11.2x
Terminal Value											15,271
WACC / Discount Rate	8.23%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	327	317	346	387	433	474	506	527	534	527	6,923

Enterprise Value	11,301
Projection Period	4,379	38.7%
Terminal Value	6,923	61.3%

(−) Current Net Debt	300
Equity Value	11,001
(÷) Outstanding Shares	37M
Fair Price	$295	+393.1%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	7.2x	9.2x	11.2x	13.2x	15.2x
6.2%	$266	$306	$346	$386	$426
7.2%	$247	$283	$319	$356	$392
8.2%	$229	$262	$295	$328	$361
9.2%	$213	$243	$273	$303	$333
10.2%	$198	$225	$253	$280	$308

Current price: $59.83. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$80.89

Market Price

$59.83

Upside / Downside

+35.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), Enterprise Financial Services Corp (EFSC) has a fair value of $80.89 based on 10 comparable companies in the Banks - Regional industry.

P/E Valuation — Banks - Regional

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
Enterprise Financial Services CorpEFSC	2,231	11.3x	13.1x
Trustmark CorporationTRMK	2,645	12.1x	193.2x
Customers Bancorp, Inc.CUBI	2,602	12.5x	13.9x
First Merchants CorporationFRME	2,547	10.4x	11.6x
First BancorpFBNC	2,439	22.0x	21.3x
NBT Bancorp Inc.NBTB	2,380	13.7x	17.5x
Nicolet Bankshares, Inc.NIC	2,312	15.0x	20.8x
First Busey CorporationBUSE	2,275	18.1x	13.5x
Banner CorporationBANR	2,231	11.6x	13.6x
Hilltop Holdings Inc.HTH	2,210	14.3x	22.0x
Stock Yards Bancorp, Inc.SYBT	2,132	15.2x	20.2x
Industry Median		14.0x	18.8x
(*) Profit after tax		201	171
Equity Value		2,819	3,214
(/) Outstanding shares		37	37
Fair Price		$76	$86

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$80.89

+35.2%

Fair Value

$85.51

Market Price

$59.83

Upside / Downside

+42.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), Enterprise Financial Services Corp (EFSC) has a fair value of $85.51 based on 10 comparable companies in the Banks - Regional industry.

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Banks - Regional

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
Enterprise Financial Services CorpEFSC	2,231	8.7x	13.6x
Trustmark CorporationTRMK	2,645	9.5x	19.8x
Customers Bancorp, Inc.CUBI	2,602	12.1x	23.5x
First Merchants CorporationFRME	2,547	12.0x	20.0x
First BancorpFBNC	2,439	15.3x	21.9x
NBT Bancorp Inc.NBTB	2,380	10.5x	17.6x
Nicolet Bankshares, Inc.NIC	2,312	9.6x	16.0x
First Busey CorporationBUSE	2,275	12.6x	30.2x
Banner CorporationBANR	2,231	9.6x	13.3x
Hilltop Holdings Inc.HTH	2,210	8.6x	11.8x
Stock Yards Bancorp, Inc.SYBT	2,132	14.3x	24.8x
Industry Median		11.2x	19.9x
(*) EBITDA		291	186
= Enterprise Value		3,274	3,704
(-) Net Debt		300	300
Equity Value		2,974	3,403
(/) Outstanding shares		37	37
Fair Price		$80	$91

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$85.51

+42.9%

Fair Value

$72.32

Market Price

$59.83

Upside / Downside

+20.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Enterprise Financial Services Corp (EFSC) has a fair value of $72.32 based on 10 comparable companies in the Banks - Regional industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Banks - Regional

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Enterprise Financial Services CorpEFSC	2,231	2.8x	4.3x
Trustmark CorporationTRMK	2,645	2.8x	5.8x
Customers Bancorp, Inc.CUBI	2,602	3.0x	5.8x
First Merchants CorporationFRME	2,547	3.3x	5.5x
First BancorpFBNC	2,439	4.4x	6.2x
NBT Bancorp Inc.NBTB	2,380	2.9x	4.9x
Nicolet Bankshares, Inc.NIC	2,312	3.2x	5.4x
First Busey CorporationBUSE	2,275	2.5x	5.9x
Banner CorporationBANR	2,231	3.0x	4.1x
Hilltop Holdings Inc.HTH	2,210	1.2x	1.6x
Stock Yards Bancorp, Inc.SYBT	2,132	4.5x	7.8x
Industry Median		3.0x	5.6x
(*) Revenue		912	582
= Enterprise Value		2,717	3,278
(-) Net Debt		300	300
Equity Value		2,416	2,977
(/) Outstanding shares		37	37
Fair Price		$65	$80

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$72.32

+20.9%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$55.01

Market Price

$59.83

Upside / Downside

-8.1%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the PEG framework with historical EPS growth of 10.4% plus 2.1% dividend yield, the company has a fair value of $55.01 based on TTM EPS (FY2025) of $5.31. The current PEG ratio is 1.09.

PEG Ratio

1.09Fair Value

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ (Growth + Yield) = 11.3 ÷ (8.3% + 2.1%) = 1.09

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: StalwartPEG highly applicable

PEG works well for steady growers with predictable earnings.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateHistorical	8.3%
Dividend Yield	+2.1%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)	10.4%
Fair P/E	10.4x
TTM EPS (FY2025)	$5.31
Fair Value	$55.01

Growth Analysis

Forward Growth

No analyst estimates available.

Historical GrowthActive

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$133.1M	$3.86	—
FY2022	$203.0M	$5.31	+37.6%
FY2023	$194.1M	$5.07	-4.5%
FY2024	$185.3M	$4.83	-4.7%
FY2025	$201.4M	$5.31	+9.9%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 8.3%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$110.48

Market Price

$59.83

Upside / Downside

+84.7%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the Earnings Power Value framework with a WACC of 8.2% and normalized earnings of $363.9M, the company has a fair value of $110.48 per share. The EPV range is $92.21 – $136.89 based on WACC sensitivity (6.7% – 9.7%).

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	364	364	364
(/) WACC	9.7%	8.2%	6.7%
Enterprise Value	3,739	4,420	5,405
(-) Net debt	300	300	300
Equity Value	3,438	4,119	5,104
(/) Outstanding shares	37	37	37
Fair Price	$92.21	$110.48	$136.89

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$26.80

Market Price

$59.83

Upside / Downside

-55.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model with a Cost of Equity of 7.7% and projected dividend growth of 5.0%, the fair value is $26.80 per share. The DDM range is $17.69 – $47.96 based on sensitivity analysis across Cost of Equity and growth rate assumptions.

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$1.21

Dividend Yield

2.06%

Payout Ratio

22.4%

Dividend Coverage

4.47x

FCF Payout Ratio24.8%

DPS CAGR (4Y)12.4%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$1.21	22.4%	+14.9%
2024	$1.05	21.3%	+5.7%
2023	$1.00	19.3%	+11.2%
2022	$0.90	16.5%	+18.2%
2021	$0.76	19.7%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$1.27	5.0%	0.9287	$1.18
2027	$1.33	5.0%	0.8626	$1.15
2028	$1.40	5.0%	0.8011	$1.12
2029	$1.47	5.0%	0.7440	$1.10
2030	$1.55	5.0%	0.6910	$1.07
Terminal Value	$1.59 DPS	2.5%		$21.18

PV of Projected Dividends$5.62

PV of Terminal Value$21.18

Fair Value per Share$26.80

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	3.0%	4.0%	5.0%	6.0%	7.0%
5.7%	$40	$42	$44	$46	$48
6.7%	$30	$32	$33	$35	$36
7.7%	$25	$26	$27	$28	$29
8.7%	$21	$21	$22	$23	$24
9.7%	$18	$18	$19	$20	$21

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Enterprise Financial Services Corp (EFSC) Valuation Summary

Updated May 10, 2026 14:06

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$157.65 – $502.17	$239.90	+301.0%
Growth Exit 10Y	$230.94 – $736.12	$352.19	+488.7%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$129.85 – $275.17	$196.47	+228.4%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$197.77 – $425.76	$295.07	+393.2%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$65.57 – $82.16	$80.89	+35.2%
EV/EBITDA	$66.66 – $90.63	$85.51	+42.9%
EV/Revenue	$59.49 – $72.62	$72.32	+20.9%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$55.01 – $55.01	$55.01	-8.1%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$92.21 – $136.89	$110.48	+84.7%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$17.69 – $47.96	$26.80	-55.2%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$239.90

Market Price

$59.83

Upside / Downside

+301.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

8.23%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	239	248	301	365	443	454
(−) Net Interest	161	168	203	246	299	306
(+) D&A	6	7	8	8	8	9
EBITDA	406	423	512	620	750	769

(−) Tax	54	56	68	83	100	103
(−) CapEx	6	7	8	10	12	12
(−) ΔWC	6	3	14	17	21	21
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	340	357	422	510	618	633

Terminal Value						11,043
WACC / Discount Rate	8.2%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	327	317	346	387	433	7,435

Enterprise Value	9,246
Projection Period	1,810	19.6%
Terminal Value	7,435	80.4%

(−) Current Net Debt	300

Equity Value	8,945
(/) Outstanding Shares	37

Fair Price	$239.90

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
6.2%	$308	$339	$379	$431	$502
7.2%	$251	$271	$295	$325	$363
8.2%	$210	$224	$240	$259	$282
9.2%	$181	$190	$201	$214	$230
10.2%	$158	$165	$173	$182	$193

Current price: $59.83. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$352.19

Market Price

$59.83

Upside / Downside

+488.7%

Verdict

Undervalued

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

8.23%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	239	248	301	365	443	524	603	677	738	783	802
(−) Net Interest	161	168	203	246	299	353	407	457	498	528	541
(+) D&A	6	7	8	8	8	8	10	12	14	16	16
EBITDA	406	423	512	620	750	886	1,020	1,145	1,250	1,327	1,360

(−) Tax	54	56	68	83	100	118	136	153	167	177	181
(−) CapEx	6	7	8	10	12	14	16	18	20	21	21
(−) ΔWC	6	3	14	17	21	22	21	20	16	12	12
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	340	357	422	510	618	732	847	954	1,047	1,117	1,145

Terminal Value											19,973
WACC / Discount Rate	8.2%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	327	317	346	387	433	474	506	527	534	527	9,054

Enterprise Value	13,433
Projection Period	4,379	32.6%
Terminal Value	9,054	67.4%

(−) Current Net Debt	300

Equity Value	13,132
(/) Outstanding Shares	37

Fair Price	$352.19

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
6.2%	$477	$519	$572	$641	$736
7.2%	$382	$407	$438	$476	$525
8.2%	$316	$333	$352	$375	$403
9.2%	$268	$279	$292	$307	$325
10.2%	$231	$239	$248	$258	$270

Current price: $59.83. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$196.44

Market Price

$59.83

Upside / Downside

+228.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Enterprise Financial Services Corp's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -14.9% to 21.3% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 23, DPO 30, DIO 60). At a 8.2% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (76% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 11.2x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $196.47 per share, suggesting EFSC is undervalued by 228.4% at the current price of $59.83.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

8.23%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

11.23x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	239	248	301	365	443	454
(−) Net Interest	161	168	203	246	299	306
(+) D&A	6	7	8	8	8	9
EBITDA	406	423	512	620	750	769

(−) Tax	54	56	68	83	100	—
(−) CapEx	6	7	8	10	12	—
(−) ΔWC	6	3	14	17	21	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	340	357	422	510	618	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						11.2x
Terminal Value						8,637
WACC / Discount Rate	8.23%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	327	317	346	387	433	5,815

Enterprise Value	7,625
Projection Period	1,810	23.7%
Terminal Value	5,815	76.3%

(−) Current Net Debt	300
Equity Value	7,324
(÷) Outstanding Shares	37M
Fair Price	$196	+228.3%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	7.2x	9.2x	11.2x	13.2x	15.2x
6.2%	$153	$184	$214	$245	$275
7.2%	$147	$176	$205	$234	$263
8.2%	$141	$169	$196	$224	$252
9.2%	$135	$162	$188	$215	$241
10.2%	$130	$155	$181	$206	$231

Current price: $59.83. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$295.03

Market Price

$59.83

Upside / Downside

+393.1%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Enterprise Financial Services Corp's cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -14.9% to 6.0% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 23, DPO 30, DIO 60). At a 8.2% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (61% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 11.2x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $295.07 per share, suggesting EFSC is undervalued by 393.2% at the current price of $59.83.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

8.23%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

11.23x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	239	248	301	365	443	524	603	677	738	783	802
(−) Net Interest	161	168	203	246	299	353	407	457	498	528	541
(+) D&A	6	7	8	8	8	8	10	12	14	16	16
EBITDA	406	423	512	620	750	886	1,020	1,145	1,250	1,327	1,360

(−) Tax	54	56	68	83	100	118	136	153	167	177	—
(−) CapEx	6	7	8	10	12	14	16	18	20	21	—
(−) ΔWC	6	3	14	17	21	22	21	20	16	12	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	340	357	422	510	618	732	847	954	1,047	1,117	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											11.2x
Terminal Value											15,271
WACC / Discount Rate	8.23%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	327	317	346	387	433	474	506	527	534	527	6,923

Enterprise Value	11,301
Projection Period	4,379	38.7%
Terminal Value	6,923	61.3%

(−) Current Net Debt	300
Equity Value	11,001
(÷) Outstanding Shares	37M
Fair Price	$295	+393.1%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	7.2x	9.2x	11.2x	13.2x	15.2x
6.2%	$266	$306	$346	$386	$426
7.2%	$247	$283	$319	$356	$392
8.2%	$229	$262	$295	$328	$361
9.2%	$213	$243	$273	$303	$333
10.2%	$198	$225	$253	$280	$308

Current price: $59.83. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$80.89

Market Price

$59.83

Upside / Downside

+35.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

P/E Valuation — Banks - Regional

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
Enterprise Financial Services CorpEFSC	2,231	11.3x	13.1x
Trustmark CorporationTRMK	2,645	12.1x	193.2x
Customers Bancorp, Inc.CUBI	2,602	12.5x	13.9x
First Merchants CorporationFRME	2,547	10.4x	11.6x
First BancorpFBNC	2,439	22.0x	21.3x
NBT Bancorp Inc.NBTB	2,380	13.7x	17.5x
Nicolet Bankshares, Inc.NIC	2,312	15.0x	20.8x
First Busey CorporationBUSE	2,275	18.1x	13.5x
Banner CorporationBANR	2,231	11.6x	13.6x
Hilltop Holdings Inc.HTH	2,210	14.3x	22.0x
Stock Yards Bancorp, Inc.SYBT	2,132	15.2x	20.2x
Industry Median		14.0x	18.8x
(*) Profit after tax		201	171
Equity Value		2,819	3,214
(/) Outstanding shares		37	37
Fair Price		$76	$86

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$80.89

+35.2%

Fair Value

$85.51

Market Price

$59.83

Upside / Downside

+42.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Banks - Regional

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
Enterprise Financial Services CorpEFSC	2,231	8.7x	13.6x
Trustmark CorporationTRMK	2,645	9.5x	19.8x
Customers Bancorp, Inc.CUBI	2,602	12.1x	23.5x
First Merchants CorporationFRME	2,547	12.0x	20.0x
First BancorpFBNC	2,439	15.3x	21.9x
NBT Bancorp Inc.NBTB	2,380	10.5x	17.6x
Nicolet Bankshares, Inc.NIC	2,312	9.6x	16.0x
First Busey CorporationBUSE	2,275	12.6x	30.2x
Banner CorporationBANR	2,231	9.6x	13.3x
Hilltop Holdings Inc.HTH	2,210	8.6x	11.8x
Stock Yards Bancorp, Inc.SYBT	2,132	14.3x	24.8x
Industry Median		11.2x	19.9x
(*) EBITDA		291	186
= Enterprise Value		3,274	3,704
(-) Net Debt		300	300
Equity Value		2,974	3,403
(/) Outstanding shares		37	37
Fair Price		$80	$91

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$85.51

+42.9%

Fair Value

$72.32

Market Price

$59.83

Upside / Downside

+20.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Banks - Regional

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Enterprise Financial Services CorpEFSC	2,231	2.8x	4.3x
Trustmark CorporationTRMK	2,645	2.8x	5.8x
Customers Bancorp, Inc.CUBI	2,602	3.0x	5.8x
First Merchants CorporationFRME	2,547	3.3x	5.5x
First BancorpFBNC	2,439	4.4x	6.2x
NBT Bancorp Inc.NBTB	2,380	2.9x	4.9x
Nicolet Bankshares, Inc.NIC	2,312	3.2x	5.4x
First Busey CorporationBUSE	2,275	2.5x	5.9x
Banner CorporationBANR	2,231	3.0x	4.1x
Hilltop Holdings Inc.HTH	2,210	1.2x	1.6x
Stock Yards Bancorp, Inc.SYBT	2,132	4.5x	7.8x
Industry Median		3.0x	5.6x
(*) Revenue		912	582
= Enterprise Value		2,717	3,278
(-) Net Debt		300	300
Equity Value		2,416	2,977
(/) Outstanding shares		37	37
Fair Price		$65	$80

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$72.32

+20.9%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$55.01

Market Price

$59.83

Upside / Downside

-8.1%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the PEG framework with historical EPS growth of 10.4% plus 2.1% dividend yield, the company has a fair value of $55.01 based on TTM EPS (FY2025) of $5.31. The current PEG ratio is 1.09.

PEG Ratio

1.09Fair Value

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ (Growth + Yield) = 11.3 ÷ (8.3% + 2.1%) = 1.09

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: StalwartPEG highly applicable

PEG works well for steady growers with predictable earnings.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateHistorical	8.3%
Dividend Yield	+2.1%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)	10.4%
Fair P/E	10.4x
TTM EPS (FY2025)	$5.31
Fair Value	$55.01

Growth Analysis

Forward Growth

No analyst estimates available.

Historical GrowthActive

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$133.1M	$3.86	—
FY2022	$203.0M	$5.31	+37.6%
FY2023	$194.1M	$5.07	-4.5%
FY2024	$185.3M	$4.83	-4.7%
FY2025	$201.4M	$5.31	+9.9%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 8.3%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$110.48

Market Price

$59.83

Upside / Downside

+84.7%

Verdict

Undervalued

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	364	364	364
(/) WACC	9.7%	8.2%	6.7%
Enterprise Value	3,739	4,420	5,405
(-) Net debt	300	300	300
Equity Value	3,438	4,119	5,104
(/) Outstanding shares	37	37	37
Fair Price	$92.21	$110.48	$136.89

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$26.80

Market Price

$59.83

Upside / Downside

-55.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$1.21

Dividend Yield

2.06%

Payout Ratio

22.4%

Dividend Coverage

4.47x

FCF Payout Ratio24.8%

DPS CAGR (4Y)12.4%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$1.21	22.4%	+14.9%
2024	$1.05	21.3%	+5.7%
2023	$1.00	19.3%	+11.2%
2022	$0.90	16.5%	+18.2%
2021	$0.76	19.7%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$1.27	5.0%	0.9287	$1.18
2027	$1.33	5.0%	0.8626	$1.15
2028	$1.40	5.0%	0.8011	$1.12
2029	$1.47	5.0%	0.7440	$1.10
2030	$1.55	5.0%	0.6910	$1.07
Terminal Value	$1.59 DPS	2.5%		$21.18

PV of Projected Dividends$5.62

PV of Terminal Value$21.18

Fair Value per Share$26.80

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	3.0%	4.0%	5.0%	6.0%	7.0%
5.7%	$40	$42	$44	$46	$48
6.7%	$30	$32	$33	$35	$36
7.7%	$25	$26	$27	$28	$29
8.7%	$21	$21	$22	$23	$24
9.7%	$18	$18	$19	$20	$21