Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Ball Corporation's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 5.9% to -1.4% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 66, DPO 139, DIO 58). At a 7.7% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (88% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 14.0x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $72.30 per share, suggesting BALL is undervalued by 20.7% at the current price of $59.91.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 869 | 897 | 931 | 918 | 905 | 927 |
| (−) Net Interest | 354 | 365 | 379 | 374 | 368 | 377 |
| (+) D&A | 1,076 | 952 | 849 | 877 | 1,013 | 1,039 |
| EBITDA | 2,298 | 2,214 | 2,159 | 2,168 | 2,286 | 2,343 |
| (−) Tax | 174 | 180 | 187 | 184 | 182 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 1,104 | 1,140 | 1,183 | 1,166 | 1,150 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 712 | -4 | -5 | 2 | 2 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 308 | 898 | 795 | 816 | 953 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 14.0x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 32,901 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.72% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 297 | 803 | 660 | 629 | 682 | 22,688 |
| Enterprise Value | 25,759 | |||||
| Projection Period | 3,071 | 11.9% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 22,688 | 88.1% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 5,800 | |||||
| Equity Value | 19,959 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 276M | |||||
| Fair Price | $72 | +20.7% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 10.0x | 12.0x | 14.0x | 16.0x | 18.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.7% | $55 | $68 | $81 | $94 | $107 |
| 6.7% | $52 | $64 | $77 | $89 | $101 |
| 7.7% | $49 | $61 | $72 | $84 | $96 |
| 8.7% | $46 | $57 | $68 | $79 | $91 |
| 9.7% | $43 | $54 | $65 | $75 | $86 |
Current price: $59.91. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.