Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 16.4% plus 1.4% dividend yield, Ball Corporation has a fair value of $64.93 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $3.97. The current PEG ratio is 0.92.
PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.
PEG works well for steady growers with predictable earnings.
| EPS Growth RateForward | 15.0% |
| Dividend Yield | +1.4% |
| Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%) | 16.4% |
| Fair P/E | 16.4x |
| NTM EPS (FY2026) | $3.97 |
| Fair Value | $64.93 |
| Period | EPS Est. | Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (actual) | $3.30 | — | — |
| FY2026E | $3.97 | +20.3% | 11 |
| FY2027E | $4.50 | +13.3% | 11 |
| FY2028E | $5.02 | +11.5% | 7 |
3Y Forward EPS CAGR: 15.0%
| Year | Net Income | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $878.0M | $2.65 | — |
| FY2022 | $719.0M | $2.25 | -15.1% |
| FY2023 | $707.0M | $2.23 | -0.9% |
| FY2024 | $4.0B | $13.00 | +483.0% |
| FY2025 | $912.0M | $3.30 | -74.6% |
4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 5.6%
The PEG Fair Value uses the Price/Earnings-to-Growth framework. A stock is fairly valued when its P/E ratio equals its earnings growth rate (PEG = 1.0). This model adds dividend yield to the growth rate per the original PEGY formula.
Growth rate priority: analyst consensus forward EPS CAGR (when ≥ 3 analysts cover the stock), falling back to historical EPS CAGR. Using EPS rather than net income avoids distortion from share buybacks. The growth rate is clamped between 8% and 25% — below 8% would undervalue stable earners, while above 25% would overvalue unsustainable spikes.