Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Atea Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 5.0% to -18.9% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 45, DPO 10, DIO 60). At a 8.7% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (0% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 6 FCFF at a 3.0% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $7.74 per share, suggesting AVIR is undervalued by 69.3% at the current price of $4.57.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | -38 | -40 | -7 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| (−) Net Interest | 7 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| (+) D&A | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| EBITDA | -30 | -32 | -6 | -1 | -0 | -0 |
| (−) Tax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| (−) CapEx | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| (−) ΔWC | 74 | 3 | -60 | -12 | -0 | -0 |
| Free Cash Flow (FCFF) | -104 | -35 | 55 | 11 | -0 | -0 |
| Terminal Value | -4 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.7% | |||||
| Long-term Growth Rate | 3.0% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | -100 | -31 | 44 | 8 | -0 | -3 |
| Enterprise Value | -81 | |||||
| Projection Period | -79 | 0.0% | ||||
| Terminal Value | -3 | 0.0% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | (764) | |||||
| Equity Value | 683 | |||||
| (/) Outstanding Shares | 88 | |||||
| Fair Price | $7.74 | |||||
| WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.7% | $8 | $8 | $8 | $8 | $8 |
| 7.7% | $8 | $8 | $8 | $8 | $8 |
| 8.7% | $8 | $8 | $8 | $8 | $8 |
| 9.7% | $8 | $8 | $8 | $8 | $8 |
| 10.7% | $8 | $8 | $8 | $8 | $8 |
Current price: $4.57. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Atea Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 5.0% to 3.3% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 45, DPO 10, DIO 60). At a 8.7% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (0% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 11 FCFF at a 3.0% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $6.89 per share, suggesting AVIR is undervalued by 50.8% at the current price of $4.57.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | -38 | -40 | -7 | -1 | -1 | -3 | -7 | -8 | -8 | -8 | -8 |
| (−) Net Interest | 7 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| (+) D&A | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| EBITDA | -30 | -32 | -6 | -1 | -0 | -2 | -6 | -6 | -6 | -7 | -7 |
| (−) Tax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| (−) CapEx | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| (−) ΔWC | 74 | 3 | -60 | -12 | -0 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Free Cash Flow (FCFF) | -104 | -35 | 55 | 11 | -0 | -7 | -14 | -7 | -7 | -7 | -7 |
| Terminal Value | -126 | ||||||||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.7% | ||||||||||
| Long-term Growth Rate | 3.0% | ||||||||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | -100 | -31 | 44 | 8 | -0 | -5 | -8 | -4 | -3 | -3 | -55 |
| Enterprise Value | -156 | ||||||||||
| Projection Period | -101 | 0.0% | |||||||||
| Terminal Value | -55 | 0.0% | |||||||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | (764) | ||||||||||
| Equity Value | 608 | ||||||||||
| (/) Outstanding Shares | 88 | ||||||||||
| Fair Price | $6.89 | ||||||||||
| WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.7% | $7 | $6 | $6 | $6 | $6 |
| 7.7% | $7 | $7 | $7 | $7 | $6 |
| 8.7% | $7 | $7 | $7 | $7 | $7 |
| 9.7% | $7 | $7 | $7 | $7 | $7 |
| 10.7% | $7 | $7 | $7 | $7 | $7 |
Current price: $4.57. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Atea Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AVIR) has a fair value of $24.36 based on 7 comparable companies in the Biotechnology industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing EV/Revenue | Forward EV/Revenue | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atea Pharmaceuticals, Inc.AVIR | 403 | -1.0x | -5.3x |
| Entrada Therapeutics, Inc. | 531 | 19.4x | 19.7x |
| Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. | 412 | 1.6x | 1.3x |
| Enanta Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 308 | 7.3x | 7.2x |
| Voyager Therapeutics, Inc. | 237 | 5.1x | 3.9x |
| Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. | 234 | 0.4x | 0.7x |
| Humacyte, Inc. | 102 | 57.0x | 8.5x |
| Pyxis Oncology, Inc. | 91 | 6.8x | — |
| Industry Median | 6.8x | 5.5x | |
| (*) Revenue | 351 | 68 | |
| = Enterprise Value | 2,392 | 378 | |
| (-) Net Debt | -764 | -764 | |
| Equity Value | 3,157 | 1,143 | |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 88 | 88 | |
| Fair Price | $36 | $13 | |
Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.