Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc.

ARCT

HealthcareBiotechnologyNASDAQ

$8.63

Market Cap: $245.43M

Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. (ARCT) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 28, 2026 22:22

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$8.07 – $31.17	$15.00	+69.1%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$10.74 – $60.31	$25.13	+183.3%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$19.43 – $184.82	$28.17	+217.6%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. (ARCT) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$25.13

Market Price

$8.64

Upside / Downside

+191.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -111.5% to a target of 13.3% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 8.3%, Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. (ARCT) has an intrinsic value of $25.13 per share (range: $10.74 – $60.31).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-111.5%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

8.3%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

6.8%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

3.9%

Tax Rate

12.2%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	36	-46.9%	-86.5%	-31	-31	1	(2)	-4	-28	-27
2027	39	9.1%	-61.6%	-24	-24	2	(3)	-0	-25	-22
2028	139	258.2%	-36.6%	-51	-51	5	(9)	-8	-47	-38
2029	107	-23.5%	-11.6%	-12	-12	4	(7)	3	-18	-13
2030	170	59.5%	13.3%	23	20	7	(11)	-5	21	14
2031	221	30.0%	13.3%	29	26	9	(14)	-4	25	16
2032	287	30.0%	13.3%	38	34	11	(18)	-5	32	19
2033	368	27.9%	13.3%	49	43	14	(23)	-6	41	23
2034	440	19.6%	13.3%	59	51	17	(27)	-6	47	24
2035	489	11.3%	13.3%	65	57	19	(29)	-4	51	24

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)20

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)987

PV of Terminal Value463

Enterprise Value482

(–) Net Debt-206

Equity Value688

(÷) Shares Outstanding27

Fair Value per Share$25.13

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
6.3%	$22	$32	$41	$51	$60
7.3%	$17	$24	$31	$38	$45
8.3%	$14	$20	$25	$31	$36
9.3%	$12	$17	$21	$25	$30
10.3%	$11	$14	$18	$22	$26

Current price: $8.63. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at -8.0% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. (ARCT) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$15.00

Market Price

$8.64

Upside / Downside

+73.7%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-111.5%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

8.3%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

6.8%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

3.9%

Tax Rate

12.2%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	36	-46.9%	-86.5%	-31	-31	1	(2)	-4	-28	-27
2027	39	9.1%	-61.6%	-24	-24	2	(3)	-0	-25	-22
2028	139	258.2%	-36.6%	-51	-51	5	(9)	-8	-46	-38
2029	107	-23.5%	-11.6%	-12	-12	4	(7)	3	-17	-13
2030	170	59.5%	13.3%	23	20	7	(10)	-5	21	15

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-85

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)415

PV of Terminal Value290

Enterprise Value205

(–) Net Debt-206

Equity Value411

(÷) Shares Outstanding27

Fair Value per Share$15.00

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
6.3%	$14	$19	$23	$27	$31
7.3%	$12	$15	$18	$21	$24
8.3%	$10	$12	$15	$18	$20
9.3%	$9	$11	$13	$15	$17
10.3%	$8	$10	$12	$13	$15

Current price: $8.63. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at -8.0% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$25.95

Market Price

$8.64

Upside / Downside

+200.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. (ARCT) has a fair value of $25.95 based on 6 comparable companies in the Biotechnology industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Biotechnology

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc.ARCT	236	0.5x	1.7x
Entrada Therapeutics, Inc.TRDA	493	17.9x	18.2x
Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc.VNDA	404	1.5x	1.3x
Foghorn Therapeutics Inc.FHTX	303	8.5x	7.9x
Sagimet Biosciences Inc.SGMT	280	102.5x	—
Voyager Therapeutics, Inc.VYGR	225	4.9x	3.7x
Humacyte, Inc.HUMA	133	72.2x	13.2x
Industry Median		13.2x	7.9x
(*) Revenue		67	18
= Enterprise Value		887	122
(-) Net Debt		-206	-206
Equity Value		1,093	328
(/) Outstanding shares		27	27
Fair Price		$40	$12

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$25.95

+200.5%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$8.07 – $31.17

$15.00

+69.1%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$10.74 – $60.31

$25.13

+183.3%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$19.43 – $184.82

$28.17

+217.6%

DCF Analysis

Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. (ARCT) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$25.13

Market Price

$8.64

Upside / Downside

+191.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-111.5%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

8.3%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

6.8%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

3.9%

Tax Rate

12.2%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	36	-46.9%	-86.5%	-31	-31	1	(2)	-4	-28	-27
2027	39	9.1%	-61.6%	-24	-24	2	(3)	-0	-25	-22
2028	139	258.2%	-36.6%	-51	-51	5	(9)	-8	-47	-38
2029	107	-23.5%	-11.6%	-12	-12	4	(7)	3	-18	-13
2030	170	59.5%	13.3%	23	20	7	(11)	-5	21	14
2031	221	30.0%	13.3%	29	26	9	(14)	-4	25	16
2032	287	30.0%	13.3%	38	34	11	(18)	-5	32	19
2033	368	27.9%	13.3%	49	43	14	(23)	-6	41	23
2034	440	19.6%	13.3%	59	51	17	(27)	-6	47	24
2035	489	11.3%	13.3%	65	57	19	(29)	-4	51	24

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)20

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)987

PV of Terminal Value463

Enterprise Value482

(–) Net Debt-206

Equity Value688

(÷) Shares Outstanding27

Fair Value per Share$25.13

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
6.3%	$22	$32	$41	$51	$60
7.3%	$17	$24	$31	$38	$45
8.3%	$14	$20	$25	$31	$36
9.3%	$12	$17	$21	$25	$30
10.3%	$11	$14	$18	$22	$26

Current price: $8.63. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at -8.0% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$25.95

Market Price

$8.64

Upside / Downside

+200.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Biotechnology

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc.ARCT	236	0.5x	1.7x
Entrada Therapeutics, Inc.TRDA	493	17.9x	18.2x
Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc.VNDA	404	1.5x	1.3x
Foghorn Therapeutics Inc.FHTX	303	8.5x	7.9x
Sagimet Biosciences Inc.SGMT	280	102.5x	—
Voyager Therapeutics, Inc.VYGR	225	4.9x	3.7x
Humacyte, Inc.HUMA	133	72.2x	13.2x
Industry Median		13.2x	7.9x
(*) Revenue		67	18
= Enterprise Value		887	122
(-) Net Debt		-206	-206
Equity Value		1,093	328
(/) Outstanding shares		27	27
Fair Price		$40	$12

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$25.95

+200.5%