Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Apollo Global Management, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -22.9% to 30.0% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 99, DPO 1051, DIO 60). At a 7.3% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (64% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 19.5x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $305.11 per share, suggesting APO is undervalued by 176.3% at the current price of $110.42.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 15,942 | 18,408 | 20,704 | 5,753 | 7,480 | 7,667 |
| (−) Net Interest | 892 | 1,030 | 1,158 | 322 | 418 | 429 |
| (+) D&A | 53 | 109 | 148 | 237 | 261 | 268 |
| EBITDA | 16,887 | 19,547 | 22,010 | 6,312 | 8,159 | 8,363 |
| (−) Tax | 810 | 936 | 1,052 | 292 | 380 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 343 | 395 | 445 | 124 | 161 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | -5,895 | 184 | 171 | -1,115 | 129 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 21,629 | 18,032 | 20,341 | 7,011 | 7,490 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 19.5x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 163,083 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.33% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 20,878 | 16,217 | 17,045 | 5,474 | 5,448 | 114,517 |
| Enterprise Value | 179,580 | |||||
| Projection Period | 65,063 | 36.2% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 114,517 | 63.8% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | (5,876) | |||||
| Equity Value | 185,456 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 608M | |||||
| Fair Price | $305 | +176.3% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 15.5x | 17.5x | 19.5x | 21.5x | 23.5x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.3% | $285 | $306 | $328 | $349 | $370 |
| 6.3% | $276 | $296 | $316 | $336 | $357 |
| 7.3% | $266 | $286 | $305 | $324 | $344 |
| 8.3% | $258 | $276 | $295 | $313 | $332 |
| 9.3% | $250 | $267 | $285 | $303 | $320 |
Current price: $110.42. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.