ADTRAN Holdings, Inc.

ADTN

TechnologyCommunication EquipmentNASDAQ

$14.94

Market Cap: $1.21B

ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (ADTN) Valuation Summary

Updated May 10, 2026 03:26

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	—	N/A	—
Revenue DCF 10Y	$5.25 – $49.73	$8.47	-43.3%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$9.46 – $24.21	$17.27	+15.6%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (ADTN) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$8.47

Market Price

$14.94

Upside / Downside

-43.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -1.4% to a target of 10.2% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 8.9%, ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (ADTN) has an intrinsic value of $8.47 per share (range: $5.25 – $49.73).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-1.4%

Target Operating Margin

10.2%

WACC

8.9%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

3.2%

Target CapEx/Rev

11.6%

D&A/Revenue

7.7%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	1,185	9.4%	0.9%	11	8	91	(47)	162	-110	-105
2027	1,292	9.0%	3.2%	42	33	100	(63)	38	32	28
2028	1,430	10.7%	5.6%	80	63	110	(81)	49	43	35
2029	1,685	17.8%	7.9%	133	105	130	(110)	90	35	26
2030	1,984	17.8%	10.2%	203	161	153	(146)	106	61	42
2031	2,288	15.3%	10.2%	234	185	176	(188)	108	66	41
2032	2,583	12.9%	10.2%	264	209	199	(233)	105	70	40
2033	2,851	10.4%	10.2%	292	231	220	(282)	95	73	39
2034	3,077	7.9%	10.2%	315	249	237	(330)	80	76	37
2035	3,245	5.5%	10.2%	332	263	250	(375)	60	78	35

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)217

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)1,364

PV of Terminal Value608

Enterprise Value825

(–) Net Debt149

Equity Value676

(÷) Shares Outstanding80

Fair Value per Share$8.47

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.2%	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%
6.9%	$-6	$-2	$15	$32	$50
7.9%	$-6	$-2	$11	$25	$38
8.9%	$-6	$-2	$8	$19	$30
9.9%	$-6	$-2	$7	$16	$25
10.9%	$-5	$-2	$5	$13	$21

Current price: $14.94. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 35.5% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$17.27

Market Price

$14.94

Upside / Downside

+15.6%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (ADTN) has a fair value of $17.27 based on 9 comparable companies in the Communication Equipment industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Communication Equipment

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
ADTRAN Holdings, Inc.ADTN	1,191	1.2x	1.5x
Ituran Location and Control Ltd.ITRN	1,212	3.1x	3.3x
Gilat Satellite Networks Ltd.GILT	1,152	2.2x	3.2x
Alpha and Omega Semiconductor LimitedAOSL	1,134	1.5x	1.6x
Corsair Gaming, Inc.CRSR	840	0.6x	0.7x
OppFi Inc.OPFI	803	1.8x	4.4x
NETGEAR, Inc.NTGR	737	0.8x	0.8x
Stratasys Ltd.SSYS	707	1.2x	1.1x
PowerFleet, Inc.AIOT	457	1.9x	5.2x
SEALSQ CorpLAES	416	0.4x	0.4x
Industry Median		1.5x	1.6x
(*) Revenue		1,084	919
= Enterprise Value		1,607	1,445
(-) Net Debt		149	149
Equity Value		1,458	1,296
(/) Outstanding shares		80	80
Fair Price		$18	$16

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$17.27

+15.6%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

—

N/A

—

Revenue DCF 10Y

$5.25 – $49.73

$8.47

-43.3%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$9.46 – $24.21

$17.27

+15.6%

DCF Analysis

ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (ADTN) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$8.47

Market Price

$14.94

Upside / Downside

-43.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-1.4%

Target Operating Margin

10.2%

WACC

8.9%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

3.2%

Target CapEx/Rev

11.6%

D&A/Revenue

7.7%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	1,185	9.4%	0.9%	11	8	91	(47)	162	-110	-105
2027	1,292	9.0%	3.2%	42	33	100	(63)	38	32	28
2028	1,430	10.7%	5.6%	80	63	110	(81)	49	43	35
2029	1,685	17.8%	7.9%	133	105	130	(110)	90	35	26
2030	1,984	17.8%	10.2%	203	161	153	(146)	106	61	42
2031	2,288	15.3%	10.2%	234	185	176	(188)	108	66	41
2032	2,583	12.9%	10.2%	264	209	199	(233)	105	70	40
2033	2,851	10.4%	10.2%	292	231	220	(282)	95	73	39
2034	3,077	7.9%	10.2%	315	249	237	(330)	80	76	37
2035	3,245	5.5%	10.2%	332	263	250	(375)	60	78	35

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)217

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)1,364

PV of Terminal Value608

Enterprise Value825

(–) Net Debt149

Equity Value676

(÷) Shares Outstanding80

Fair Value per Share$8.47

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.2%	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%
6.9%	$-6	$-2	$15	$32	$50
7.9%	$-6	$-2	$11	$25	$38
8.9%	$-6	$-2	$8	$19	$30
9.9%	$-6	$-2	$7	$16	$25
10.9%	$-5	$-2	$5	$13	$21

Current price: $14.94. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 35.5% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$17.27

Market Price

$14.94

Upside / Downside

+15.6%

Verdict

Undervalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Communication Equipment

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
ADTRAN Holdings, Inc.ADTN	1,191	1.2x	1.5x
Ituran Location and Control Ltd.ITRN	1,212	3.1x	3.3x
Gilat Satellite Networks Ltd.GILT	1,152	2.2x	3.2x
Alpha and Omega Semiconductor LimitedAOSL	1,134	1.5x	1.6x
Corsair Gaming, Inc.CRSR	840	0.6x	0.7x
OppFi Inc.OPFI	803	1.8x	4.4x
NETGEAR, Inc.NTGR	737	0.8x	0.8x
Stratasys Ltd.SSYS	707	1.2x	1.1x
PowerFleet, Inc.AIOT	457	1.9x	5.2x
SEALSQ CorpLAES	416	0.4x	0.4x
Industry Median		1.5x	1.6x
(*) Revenue		1,084	919
= Enterprise Value		1,607	1,445
(-) Net Debt		149	149
Equity Value		1,458	1,296
(/) Outstanding shares		80	80
Fair Price		$18	$16

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$17.27

+15.6%