NETGEAR, Inc.

NTGR

TechnologyCommunication EquipmentNASDAQ

$25.67

Market Cap: $688.98M

NETGEAR, Inc. (NTGR) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 6, 2026 22:27

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$5.37 – $59.57	$22.89	-2.8%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$1.47 – $27.06	$8.30	-64.8%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$31.78 – $56.42	$40.75	+73.0%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

NETGEAR, Inc. (NTGR) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$8.30

Market Price

$25.67

Upside / Downside

-67.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -5.1% to a target of 10.0% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 8.9%, NETGEAR, Inc. (NTGR) has an intrinsic value of $8.30 per share (range: $1.47 – $27.06).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-5.1%

Target Operating Margin

10.0%

WACC

8.9%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.3%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

1.1%

Tax Rate

37.5%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	671	-3.3%	-2.1%	-14	-14	7	(12)	29	-47	-45
2027	729	8.6%	0.9%	7	4	8	(16)	26	-30	-27
2028	812	11.4%	4.0%	32	20	9	(22)	38	-31	-25
2029	885	9.0%	7.0%	62	39	9	(28)	33	-13	-10
2030	797	-10.0%	10.0%	79	50	9	(29)	-40	69	47
2031	719	-9.7%	10.0%	72	45	8	(30)	-35	58	36
2032	668	-7.2%	10.0%	67	42	7	(31)	-23	41	24
2033	637	-4.6%	10.0%	64	40	7	(32)	-14	28	15
2034	624	-2.1%	10.0%	62	39	7	(35)	-6	17	8
2035	627	0.5%	10.0%	63	39	7	(38)	1	7	3

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)27

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)121

PV of Terminal Value54

Enterprise Value81

(–) Net Debt-159

Equity Value240

(÷) Shares Outstanding29

Fair Value per Share$8.30

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.0%	7.0%	10.0%	13.0%	16.0%
6.9%	$1	$4	$10	$19	$27
7.9%	$2	$4	$9	$16	$23
8.9%	$2	$4	$8	$14	$19
9.9%	$2	$4	$8	$12	$17
10.9%	$2	$4	$7	$11	$16

Current price: $25.67. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 45.3% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

NETGEAR, Inc. (NTGR) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$22.89

Market Price

$25.67

Upside / Downside

-10.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-5.1%

Target Operating Margin

10.0%

WACC

8.9%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.3%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

1.1%

Tax Rate

37.5%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	671	-3.3%	-2.1%	-14	-14	7	(15)	29	-50	-48
2027	729	8.6%	0.9%	7	4	8	(23)	26	-37	-33
2028	812	11.4%	4.0%	32	20	9	(33)	38	-42	-34
2029	885	9.0%	7.0%	62	39	9	(45)	33	-30	-22
2030	797	-10.0%	10.0%	79	50	9	(48)	-40	50	34

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-103

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)887

PV of Terminal Value605

Enterprise Value502

(–) Net Debt-159

Equity Value661

(÷) Shares Outstanding29

Fair Value per Share$22.89

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.0%	7.0%	10.0%	13.0%	16.0%
6.9%	$13	$25	$36	$48	$60
7.9%	$10	$19	$28	$37	$46
8.9%	$8	$15	$23	$30	$38
9.9%	$6	$13	$19	$25	$32
10.9%	$5	$11	$16	$22	$27

Current price: $25.67. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 45.3% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$40.75

Market Price

$25.67

Upside / Downside

+58.7%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), NETGEAR, Inc. (NTGR) has a fair value of $40.75 based on 10 comparable companies in the Communication Equipment industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Communication Equipment

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
NETGEAR, Inc.NTGR	742	0.8x	0.8x
ADTRAN Holdings, Inc.ADTN	1,043	1.1x	1.3x
Harmonic Inc.HLIT	1,043	3.0x	1.6x
Gilat Satellite Networks Ltd.GILT	1,026	1.9x	2.8x
Ituran Location and Control Ltd.ITRN	1,020	2.6x	2.7x
Allient Inc.ALNT	1,020	2.1x	2.2x
Daktronics, Inc.DAKT	939	1.1x	1.1x
ScanSource, Inc.SCSC	810	0.3x	0.2x
Stratasys Ltd.SSYS	692	1.1x	1.0x
Corsair Gaming, Inc.CRSR	603	0.4x	0.5x
PowerFleet, Inc.AIOT	432	1.8x	5.0x
Industry Median		1.5x	1.4x
(*) Revenue		693	694
= Enterprise Value		1,033	1,003
(-) Net Debt		-159	-159
Equity Value		1,192	1,162
(/) Outstanding shares		29	29
Fair Price		$41	$40

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$40.75

+58.7%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$5.37 – $59.57

$22.89

-2.8%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$1.47 – $27.06

$8.30

-64.8%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$31.78 – $56.42

$40.75

+73.0%

DCF Analysis

NETGEAR, Inc. (NTGR) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$8.30

Market Price

$25.67

Upside / Downside

-67.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-5.1%

Target Operating Margin

10.0%

WACC

8.9%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.3%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

1.1%

Tax Rate

37.5%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	671	-3.3%	-2.1%	-14	-14	7	(12)	29	-47	-45
2027	729	8.6%	0.9%	7	4	8	(16)	26	-30	-27
2028	812	11.4%	4.0%	32	20	9	(22)	38	-31	-25
2029	885	9.0%	7.0%	62	39	9	(28)	33	-13	-10
2030	797	-10.0%	10.0%	79	50	9	(29)	-40	69	47
2031	719	-9.7%	10.0%	72	45	8	(30)	-35	58	36
2032	668	-7.2%	10.0%	67	42	7	(31)	-23	41	24
2033	637	-4.6%	10.0%	64	40	7	(32)	-14	28	15
2034	624	-2.1%	10.0%	62	39	7	(35)	-6	17	8
2035	627	0.5%	10.0%	63	39	7	(38)	1	7	3

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)27

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)121

PV of Terminal Value54

Enterprise Value81

(–) Net Debt-159

Equity Value240

(÷) Shares Outstanding29

Fair Value per Share$8.30

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.0%	7.0%	10.0%	13.0%	16.0%
6.9%	$1	$4	$10	$19	$27
7.9%	$2	$4	$9	$16	$23
8.9%	$2	$4	$8	$14	$19
9.9%	$2	$4	$8	$12	$17
10.9%	$2	$4	$7	$11	$16

Current price: $25.67. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 45.3% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$40.75

Market Price

$25.67

Upside / Downside

+58.7%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), NETGEAR, Inc. (NTGR) has a fair value of $40.75 based on 10 comparable companies in the Communication Equipment industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Communication Equipment

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
NETGEAR, Inc.NTGR	742	0.8x	0.8x
ADTRAN Holdings, Inc.ADTN	1,043	1.1x	1.3x
Harmonic Inc.HLIT	1,043	3.0x	1.6x
Gilat Satellite Networks Ltd.GILT	1,026	1.9x	2.8x
Ituran Location and Control Ltd.ITRN	1,020	2.6x	2.7x
Allient Inc.ALNT	1,020	2.1x	2.2x
Daktronics, Inc.DAKT	939	1.1x	1.1x
ScanSource, Inc.SCSC	810	0.3x	0.2x
Stratasys Ltd.SSYS	692	1.1x	1.0x
Corsair Gaming, Inc.CRSR	603	0.4x	0.5x
PowerFleet, Inc.AIOT	432	1.8x	5.0x
Industry Median		1.5x	1.4x
(*) Revenue		693	694
= Enterprise Value		1,033	1,003
(-) Net Debt		-159	-159
Equity Value		1,192	1,162
(/) Outstanding shares		29	29
Fair Price		$41	$40

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$40.75

+58.7%