Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited

AOSL

TechnologySemiconductorsNASDAQ

$38.62

Market Cap: $1.16B

Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited (AOSL) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 28, 2026 22:22

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$5.82 – $60.00	$18.13	-54.2%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$5.11 – $56.75	$16.79	-57.6%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$35.22 – $114.47	$80.19	+102.7%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited (AOSL) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$16.79

Market Price

$38.62

Upside / Downside

-56.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -4.1% to a target of 10.0% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 8.9%, Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited (AOSL) has an intrinsic value of $16.79 per share (range: $5.11 – $56.75).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-4.1%

Target Operating Margin

10.0%

WACC

8.9%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

11.2%

Target CapEx/Rev

11.1%

D&A/Revenue

7.4%

Tax Rate

15.7%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	676	-2.9%	-1.3%	-9	-9	50	(75)	-22	-12	-11
2027	719	6.4%	1.5%	11	9	53	(80)	9	-27	-24
2028	831	15.4%	4.3%	36	30	61	(92)	24	-24	-20
2029	843	1.5%	7.2%	60	51	62	(94)	3	17	12
2030	855	1.5%	10.0%	85	72	63	(95)	3	37	25
2031	870	1.7%	10.0%	87	73	64	(97)	3	38	24
2032	887	2.0%	10.0%	88	75	65	(98)	4	38	22
2033	907	2.2%	10.0%	90	76	67	(101)	4	38	20
2034	929	2.5%	10.0%	93	78	69	(103)	5	39	19
2035	955	2.7%	10.0%	95	80	70	(106)	5	40	18

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)85

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)690

PV of Terminal Value306

Enterprise Value392

(–) Net Debt-102

Equity Value494

(÷) Shares Outstanding29

Fair Value per Share$16.79

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.0%	7.0%	10.0%	13.0%	16.0%
6.9%	$-1	$10	$26	$41	$57
7.9%	$-1	$8	$20	$33	$45
8.9%	$-1	$7	$17	$27	$37
9.9%	$-1	$6	$14	$23	$31
10.9%	$-1	$5	$12	$20	$27

Current price: $38.62. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 21.4% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited (AOSL) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$18.13

Market Price

$38.62

Upside / Downside

-53.1%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-4.1%

Target Operating Margin

10.0%

WACC

8.9%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

11.2%

Target CapEx/Rev

11.1%

D&A/Revenue

7.4%

Tax Rate

15.7%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	676	-2.9%	-1.3%	-9	-9	50	(75)	-22	-12	-11
2027	719	6.4%	1.5%	11	9	53	(80)	9	-27	-24
2028	831	15.4%	4.3%	36	30	61	(92)	24	-24	-20
2029	843	1.5%	7.2%	60	51	62	(93)	3	17	13
2030	855	1.5%	10.0%	85	72	63	(95)	3	38	26

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-16

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)657

PV of Terminal Value447

Enterprise Value431

(–) Net Debt-102

Equity Value533

(÷) Shares Outstanding29

Fair Value per Share$18.13

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.0%	7.0%	10.0%	13.0%	16.0%
6.9%	$-1	$12	$28	$44	$60
7.9%	$-0	$9	$22	$35	$47
8.9%	$-0	$8	$18	$28	$39
9.9%	$-0	$7	$15	$24	$33
10.9%	$-0	$6	$13	$21	$28

Current price: $38.62. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 21.4% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$80.19

Market Price

$38.62

Upside / Downside

+107.7%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited (AOSL) has a fair value of $80.19 based on 7 comparable companies in the Semiconductors industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Semiconductors

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Alpha and Omega Semiconductor LimitedAOSL	1,136	1.5x	1.6x
Ichor Holdings, Ltd.ICHR	2,312	2.5x	2.5x
SkyWater Technology, Inc.SKYT	1,515	3.9x	5.1x
ADTRAN Holdings, Inc.ADTN	1,304	1.3x	1.6x
Wolfspeed, Inc.WOLF	1,164	9.6x	9.6x
indie Semiconductor, Inc.INDI	795	4.7x	4.7x
OppFi Inc.OPFI	778	1.7x	4.2x
Corsair Gaming, Inc.CRSR	714	0.5x	0.6x
Industry Median		2.5x	4.2x
(*) Revenue		696	656
= Enterprise Value		1,763	2,749
(-) Net Debt		-102	-102
Equity Value		1,865	2,852
(/) Outstanding shares		29	29
Fair Price		$63	$97

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$80.19

+107.7%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$5.82 – $60.00

$18.13

-54.2%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$5.11 – $56.75

$16.79

-57.6%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$35.22 – $114.47

$80.19

+102.7%

DCF Analysis

Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited (AOSL) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$16.79

Market Price

$38.62

Upside / Downside

-56.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-4.1%

Target Operating Margin

10.0%

WACC

8.9%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

11.2%

Target CapEx/Rev

11.1%

D&A/Revenue

7.4%

Tax Rate

15.7%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	676	-2.9%	-1.3%	-9	-9	50	(75)	-22	-12	-11
2027	719	6.4%	1.5%	11	9	53	(80)	9	-27	-24
2028	831	15.4%	4.3%	36	30	61	(92)	24	-24	-20
2029	843	1.5%	7.2%	60	51	62	(94)	3	17	12
2030	855	1.5%	10.0%	85	72	63	(95)	3	37	25
2031	870	1.7%	10.0%	87	73	64	(97)	3	38	24
2032	887	2.0%	10.0%	88	75	65	(98)	4	38	22
2033	907	2.2%	10.0%	90	76	67	(101)	4	38	20
2034	929	2.5%	10.0%	93	78	69	(103)	5	39	19
2035	955	2.7%	10.0%	95	80	70	(106)	5	40	18

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)85

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)690

PV of Terminal Value306

Enterprise Value392

(–) Net Debt-102

Equity Value494

(÷) Shares Outstanding29

Fair Value per Share$16.79

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.0%	7.0%	10.0%	13.0%	16.0%
6.9%	$-1	$10	$26	$41	$57
7.9%	$-1	$8	$20	$33	$45
8.9%	$-1	$7	$17	$27	$37
9.9%	$-1	$6	$14	$23	$31
10.9%	$-1	$5	$12	$20	$27

Current price: $38.62. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 21.4% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$80.19

Market Price

$38.62

Upside / Downside

+107.7%

Verdict

Undervalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Semiconductors

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Alpha and Omega Semiconductor LimitedAOSL	1,136	1.5x	1.6x
Ichor Holdings, Ltd.ICHR	2,312	2.5x	2.5x
SkyWater Technology, Inc.SKYT	1,515	3.9x	5.1x
ADTRAN Holdings, Inc.ADTN	1,304	1.3x	1.6x
Wolfspeed, Inc.WOLF	1,164	9.6x	9.6x
indie Semiconductor, Inc.INDI	795	4.7x	4.7x
OppFi Inc.OPFI	778	1.7x	4.2x
Corsair Gaming, Inc.CRSR	714	0.5x	0.6x
Industry Median		2.5x	4.2x
(*) Revenue		696	656
= Enterprise Value		1,763	2,749
(-) Net Debt		-102	-102
Equity Value		1,865	2,852
(/) Outstanding shares		29	29
Fair Price		$63	$97

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$80.19

+107.7%