Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Autodesk, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 13.1% to 13.1% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 64, DPO 121, DIO 60). At a 9.2% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (89% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 28.0x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $254.00 per share, suggesting ADSK is fairly valued by 5.7% at the current price of $240.38.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 1,636 | 1,806 | 1,994 | 2,205 | 2,495 | 2,557 |
| (−) Net Interest | 52 | 57 | 63 | 70 | 79 | 81 |
| (+) D&A | 58 | 62 | 71 | 86 | 89 | 91 |
| EBITDA | 1,746 | 1,924 | 2,128 | 2,361 | 2,663 | 2,729 |
| (−) Tax | 310 | 342 | 378 | 418 | 473 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 86 | 95 | 105 | 116 | 131 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 275 | 134 | 149 | 167 | 229 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 1,074 | 1,353 | 1,497 | 1,660 | 1,830 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 28.0x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 76,307 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.16% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 1,028 | 1,187 | 1,202 | 1,222 | 1,233 | 49,221 |
| Enterprise Value | 55,093 | |||||
| Projection Period | 5,872 | 10.7% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 49,221 | 89.3% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 485 | |||||
| Equity Value | 54,608 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 215M | |||||
| Fair Price | $254 | +5.7% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 24.0x | 26.0x | 28.0x | 30.0x | 32.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.2% | $242 | $260 | $278 | $295 | $313 |
| 8.2% | $231 | $248 | $265 | $283 | $300 |
| 9.2% | $221 | $238 | $254 | $270 | $287 |
| 10.2% | $212 | $228 | $243 | $259 | $274 |
| 11.2% | $203 | $218 | $233 | $248 | $263 |
Current price: $240.38. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.