Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Archer-Daniels-Midland Company's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 7.1% to 1.2% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 26, DPO 28, DIO 57). At a 7.0% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (104% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 14.0x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $68.59 per share, suggesting ADM is fairly valued by 5.6% at the current price of $72.63.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 2,263 | 2,347 | 2,509 | 2,244 | 2,271 | 2,328 |
| (−) Net Interest | 518 | 538 | 575 | 514 | 520 | 533 |
| (+) D&A | 1,359 | 1,388 | 1,396 | 1,389 | 1,337 | 1,371 |
| EBITDA | 4,140 | 4,272 | 4,480 | 4,148 | 4,129 | 4,232 |
| (−) Tax | 402 | 417 | 446 | 399 | 404 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 1,314 | 1,363 | 1,457 | 1,303 | 1,319 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 12,472 | 461 | 894 | -1,459 | 148 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | -10,048 | 2,030 | 1,682 | 3,904 | 2,258 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 14.0x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 59,205 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.96% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | -9,716 | 1,835 | 1,422 | 3,084 | 1,668 | 42,286 |
| Enterprise Value | 40,579 | |||||
| Projection Period | -1,707 | -4.2% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 42,286 | 104.2% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 7,395 | |||||
| Equity Value | 33,184 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 484M | |||||
| Fair Price | $69 | -5.6% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 10.0x | 12.0x | 14.0x | 16.0x | 18.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | $51 | $64 | $78 | $92 | $105 |
| 6.0% | $47 | $60 | $73 | $86 | $99 |
| 7.0% | $44 | $56 | $69 | $81 | $94 |
| 8.0% | $40 | $52 | $64 | $76 | $88 |
| 9.0% | $37 | $49 | $60 | $72 | $83 |
Current price: $72.63. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.