Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 15.0% plus 2.8% dividend yield, Archer-Daniels-Midland Company has a fair value of $60.18 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $4.00. The current PEG ratio is 1.21.
PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.
PEG works well for steady growers with predictable earnings.
| EPS Growth RateForward | 12.2% |
| Dividend Yield | +2.8% |
| Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%) | 15.0% |
| Fair P/E | 15.0x |
| NTM EPS (FY2026) | $4.00 |
| Fair Value | $60.18 |
| Period | EPS Est. | Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (actual) | $2.23 | — | — |
| FY2026E | $4.00 | +79.3% | 7 |
| FY2027E | $4.74 | +18.5% | 7 |
| FY2028E | $4.93 | +4.0% | 4 |
| FY2029E | $4.09 | -17.0% | 3 |
| FY2030E | $3.97 | -2.9% | 3 |
5Y Forward EPS CAGR: 12.2%
| Year | Net Income | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $2.7B | $4.79 | — |
| FY2022 | $4.3B | $7.71 | +61.0% |
| FY2023 | $3.5B | $6.43 | -16.6% |
| FY2024 | $1.8B | $3.65 | -43.2% |
| FY2025 | $1.1B | $2.23 | -38.9% |
4Y Historical EPS CAGR: -17.4%
The PEG Fair Value uses the Price/Earnings-to-Growth framework. A stock is fairly valued when its P/E ratio equals its earnings growth rate (PEG = 1.0). This model adds dividend yield to the growth rate per the original PEGY formula.
Growth rate priority: analyst consensus forward EPS CAGR (when ≥ 3 analysts cover the stock), falling back to historical EPS CAGR. Using EPS rather than net income avoids distortion from share buybacks. The growth rate is clamped between 8% and 25% — below 8% would undervalue stable earners, while above 25% would overvalue unsustainable spikes.