Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 25.0% plus 1.9% dividend yield, Valero Energy Corporation has a fair value of $376.66 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $15.07. The current PEG ratio is 0.47.
PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.
Growth above 25% is capped — hypergrowth may not be sustainable long-term.
| EPS Growth RateForward | 33.2% |
| Dividend Yield | +1.9% |
| Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped | 25.0% |
| Fair P/E | 25.0x |
| NTM EPS (FY2026) | $15.07 |
| Fair Value | $376.66 |
| Period | EPS Est. | Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (actual) | $7.57 | — | — |
| FY2026E | $15.07 | +99.0% | 10 |
| FY2027E | $14.31 | -5.0% | 9 |
| FY2028E | $15.04 | +5.1% | 4 |
| FY2029E | $29.30 | +94.8% | 3 |
| FY2030E | $31.80 | +8.5% | 3 |
5Y Forward EPS CAGR: 33.2%
The PEG Fair Value uses the Price/Earnings-to-Growth framework. A stock is fairly valued when its P/E ratio equals its earnings growth rate (PEG = 1.0). This model adds dividend yield to the growth rate per the original PEGY formula.
Growth rate priority: analyst consensus forward EPS CAGR (when ≥ 3 analysts cover the stock), falling back to historical EPS CAGR. Using EPS rather than net income avoids distortion from share buybacks. The growth rate is clamped between 8% and 25% — below 8% would undervalue stable earners, while above 25% would overvalue unsustainable spikes.
| Year | Net Income | EPS | YoY |
|---|
| FY2021 | $930.0M | $2.27 | — |
| FY2022 | $11.5B | $29.00 | +1177.5% |
| FY2023 | $8.8B | $24.95 | -14.0% |
| FY2024 | $2.8B | $8.58 | -65.6% |
| FY2025 | $2.3B | $7.57 | -11.8% |
4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 35.1%