Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project VICI Properties Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 2.3% to 27.6% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 1647, DPO 30, DIO 60). At a 8.0% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (110% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 17.6x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $71.60 per share, suggesting VICI is undervalued by 163.9% at the current price of $27.13.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 3,073 | 3,119 | 3,214 | 4,102 | 5,236 | 5,366 |
| (−) Net Interest | 912 | 926 | 954 | 1,217 | 1,554 | 1,592 |
| (+) D&A | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| EBITDA | 3,989 | 4,049 | 4,172 | 5,324 | 6,793 | 6,963 |
| (−) Tax | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 8 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 8 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 18,490 | 278 | 568 | 5,344 | 6,820 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | -14,511 | 3,761 | 3,594 | -32 | -43 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 17.6x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 122,206 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.98% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | -13,964 | 3,352 | 2,967 | -25 | -30 | 83,239 |
| Enterprise Value | 75,539 | |||||
| Projection Period | -7,701 | -10.2% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 83,239 | 110.2% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | (563) | |||||
| Equity Value | 76,102 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 1063M | |||||
| Fair Price | $72 | +164.0% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 13.5x | 15.5x | 17.5x | 19.5x | 21.5x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.0% | $60 | $70 | $79 | $89 | $99 |
| 7.0% | $57 | $66 | $75 | $85 | $94 |
| 8.0% | $54 | $63 | $72 | $81 | $89 |
| 9.0% | $51 | $60 | $68 | $77 | $85 |
| 10.0% | $48 | $56 | $65 | $73 | $81 |
Current price: $27.13. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.