Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 9.0%, Ulta Beauty, Inc. has a fair value of $256.91 based on NTM EPS (FY2027) of $28.53. The current PEG ratio is 2.03.
PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.
PEG works well for steady growers with predictable earnings.
| EPS Growth RateForward | 9.0% |
| Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%) | 9.0% |
| Fair P/E | 9.0x |
| NTM EPS (FY2027) | $28.53 |
| Fair Value | $256.91 |
| Period | EPS Est. | Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (actual) | $25.64 | — | — |
| FY2027E | $28.53 | +11.3% | 19 |
| FY2028E | $31.64 | +10.9% | 20 |
| FY2029E | $34.60 | +9.3% | 11 |
| FY2030E | $36.83 | +6.5% | 5 |
| FY2031E | $43.01 | +16.8% | 5 |
6Y Forward EPS CAGR: 9.0%
| Year | Net Income | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $985.8M | $17.98 | — |
| FY2022 | $1.2B | $24.01 | +33.5% |
| FY2023 | $1.3B | $26.03 | +8.4% |
| FY2024 | $1.2B | $25.34 | -2.7% |
| FY2025 | $1.2B | $25.64 | +1.2% |
4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 9.3%
The PEG Fair Value uses the Price/Earnings-to-Growth framework. A stock is fairly valued when its P/E ratio equals its earnings growth rate (PEG = 1.0). This model adds dividend yield to the growth rate per the original PEGY formula.
Growth rate priority: analyst consensus forward EPS CAGR (when ≥ 3 analysts cover the stock), falling back to historical EPS CAGR. Using EPS rather than net income avoids distortion from share buybacks. The growth rate is clamped between 8% and 25% — below 8% would undervalue stable earners, while above 25% would overvalue unsustainable spikes.