Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Uber Technologies, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 12.2% to 8.9% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 40, DPO 17, DIO 60). At a 9.0% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (93% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 29.3x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $79.82 per share, suggesting UBER is fairly valued by 13.1% at the current price of $70.57.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 4,043 | 4,635 | 5,208 | 5,734 | 6,242 | 6,398 |
| (−) Net Interest | 966 | 1,107 | 1,244 | 1,370 | 1,491 | 1,528 |
| (+) D&A | 270 | 311 | 375 | 460 | 553 | 567 |
| EBITDA | 5,279 | 6,053 | 6,827 | 7,563 | 8,286 | 8,493 |
| (−) Tax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 501 | 574 | 645 | 711 | 774 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 7,657 | 1,535 | 1,483 | 1,362 | 1,315 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | -2,879 | 3,944 | 4,699 | 5,491 | 6,197 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 29.3x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 249,107 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.97% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | -2,758 | 3,468 | 3,791 | 4,065 | 4,211 | 162,155 |
| Enterprise Value | 174,932 | |||||
| Projection Period | 12,777 | 7.3% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 162,155 | 92.7% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 5,734 | |||||
| Equity Value | 169,198 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 2120M | |||||
| Fair Price | $80 | +13.1% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 25.3x | 27.3x | 29.3x | 31.3x | 33.3x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $76 | $82 | $88 | $93 | $99 |
| 8.0% | $73 | $78 | $84 | $89 | $95 |
| 9.0% | $69 | $75 | $80 | $85 | $90 |
| 10.0% | $66 | $71 | $76 | $81 | $86 |
| 11.0% | $63 | $68 | $73 | $78 | $82 |
Current price: $70.57. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.