Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 10.9% plus 2.0% dividend yield, Tractor Supply Company has a fair value of $23.62 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $2.18. The current PEG ratio is 1.94.
PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.
PEG works well for steady growers with predictable earnings.
| EPS Growth RateForward | 8.8% |
| Dividend Yield | +2.0% |
| Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%) | 10.9% |
| Fair P/E | 10.9x |
| NTM EPS (FY2026) | $2.18 |
| Fair Value | $23.62 |
| Period | EPS Est. | Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (actual) | $2.06 | — | — |
| FY2026E | $2.18 | +5.6% | 21 |
| FY2027E | $2.40 | +10.4% | 19 |
| FY2028E | $2.67 | +11.3% | 12 |
| FY2029E | $2.93 | +9.6% | 7 |
| FY2030E | $3.15 | +7.3% | 11 |
5Y Forward EPS CAGR: 8.8%
| Year | Net Income | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $997.1M | $1.72 | — |
| FY2022 | $1.1B | $1.94 | +12.8% |
| FY2023 | $1.1B | $2.02 | +3.9% |
| FY2024 | $1.1B | $2.04 | +1.1% |
| FY2025 | $1.1B | $2.06 | +1.0% |
4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 4.6%
The PEG Fair Value uses the Price/Earnings-to-Growth framework. A stock is fairly valued when its P/E ratio equals its earnings growth rate (PEG = 1.0). This model adds dividend yield to the growth rate per the original PEGY formula.
Growth rate priority: analyst consensus forward EPS CAGR (when ≥ 3 analysts cover the stock), falling back to historical EPS CAGR. Using EPS rather than net income avoids distortion from share buybacks. The growth rate is clamped between 8% and 25% — below 8% would undervalue stable earners, while above 25% would overvalue unsustainable spikes.